Powered by .id (informed decisions) for City of Port Phillip
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LEARN MORE ABOUT .idCOVID-19 is a significant health crisis which has resulted in major social and economic disruption across the world. In Australia, the closure of borders (both external and internal) will have impacts on the size and distribution of future population growth. At a local level, the impacts on population growth and demographics outcomes will be felt differently.
.id developed population forecasts for City of Port Phillip in November 2019. These forecasts do not consider potential impacts to assumptions stemming from COVID-19. They do, however, provide a baseline by which to understand where the population may have been without this external shock.
In order to further understand how COVID-19 may impact population growth within City of Port Phillip, we have developed a COVID-19 impact assessment. This assessment is based upon our understanding of typologies (i.e. the characteristics, roles and functions of communities). It demonstrates how these influences may play out across a range of variables, at a localised level. These include:
City of Port Phillip is one of six local government areas in Australia that can be classified as an inner city area.
Typical characteristics of inner city areas include:
Based on our understanding of the characteristics of inner city areas, we consider the following to be likely impacts on population growth. These insights are not necessarily specific to the City of Port Phillip, but reflect challenges and opportunities for this type of place.
Short to medium term impact from the shock to net overseas migration will be significant, as direct overseas migration contributes 140% of all people moving into or leaving inner city areas. Whereas people moving out to other areas in Australia account for -40% of total inner city net migration.
Severe impact on future international student residents. The impact on the number of new international students will be severe nationally. COVID-19 will have some of the largest impacts on inner city areas which are close to large universities and are home to large numbers of international students.
Interstate migration Due to border closures and economic uncertainty, inner city areas which typically experience net out-migration to other States will retain more residents, while areas which typically experience net in-migration will not gain as many new residents.
Intrastate migration inner city areas typically lose large numbers of residents to other areas within the same state, particularly to suburban and growth areas, as residents move into a family making stage. Historic levels of net out-migration could continue under COVID-19, as suburban and growth areas will continue to be attractive places to live.
Births are likely to be fewer in the short-term as fertility typically declines in times of economic uncertainty. Inner city areas tend to have lower levels of fertility, and will be impacted less severely than other areas.
Deaths caused by COVID-19 are currently at very low levels. This is due to low overall case numbers, however, the number of deaths could increase in inner city areas if outbreaks were seen in areas with relatively large numbers of vulnerable elderly residents.
Access to a range of metropolitan jobs, including higher-order service jobs will continue to be one of the most important drivers of population change and inner city residents have typically enjoyed excellent access to a range of higher-order jobs. The short term COVID-19 impacts on employed residents in inner city areas are significant, particularly in Melbourne where a second ‘lockdown’ as a result of a second COVID-19 outbreak is being enforced.
Jobs which are located within inner city areas will be negatively impacted by the economic shock caused by COVID-19. Inner city areas which contain larger employment centres, and with a greater share of higher order services jobs, will be affected more in the short-medium term than other areas.
COVID-19 will increase the likelihood of housing relocation among households who are already vulnerable due to factors such as, unemployment or insecure work, low income, and rental or mortgage stress. How this plays out in most inner city areas will be subtle and dependent on a number of factors including a greater likelihood of housing relocation among younger residents, who are currently spending a large proportion of income on rent, and who have recently become unemployed or joined JobKeeper.
Moving house could affect household formation in several ways including: younger residents moving back home with their parents, elderly residents moving in with their children (as dependants), formation of group households and other larger households to share housing costs.
Access to quality open space and natural environment. Generally inner city areas do not have as much access to natural environment, such as beaches, mountains or parks, compared to other areas. This means that some residents may be attracted to other areas with more features.
Quality health, education, transport, sporting and cultural infrastructure. Inner city areas with these attributes however, will have higher levels of other amenity, which are attractive to new residents.
Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Net migration explains who will move into an area as well as who is leaving the area. It is therefore an excellent way of understanding housing markets and how the role and function of an area may be affected by COVID-19. Changes to migration may disproportionately affect industries such as the education sector due to their reliance on overseas migration.
Migration | |||
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Description | City of Port Phillip | Greater Melbourne | Potential impact |
Overseas migration | |||
Share of residents born overseas | 31.4% | 33.8% | Negative impact |
Overseas migration share of total net migration (2011 to 2016) | 106.8% | 95.7% | Negative impact |
Interstate migration | |||
Interstate migration share of total net migration (2011 to 2016) | 29.4% | 9.7% | Negative impact |
Intrastate migration | |||
Intrastate migration share of total net migration (2011 to 2016) | -36.2% | -5.4% | Negative impact |
International student impacts | |||
Residents attending university | 6.4% | 6.4% | Negative impact |
Residents attending TAFE | 1.5% | 1.8% | Negligible impact |
The size of the population increases through births and decline through deaths. The number of forecast births is an indication of the exposure the community has to changes to the fertility rate. The share of residents aged 70+ years provides an indication of the exposure the community has to changes to the mortality rate due to COVID-19.
Natural increase | |||
---|---|---|---|
Description | City of Port Phillip | Greater Melbourne | Potential impact |
Natural increase | |||
Natural increase share of forecast population growth (2020 to 2024) | 37.2% | 65.6% | Some negative impact |
Mortality | |||
Share of residents aged 70+ years (2020) | 8.3% | 9.8% | Some exposure |
Economic vulnerability is an indicator of the degree to which COVID-19 may negatively impact the employment prospects of local residents. Communities with high gross regional product decline and/or high levels of local jobs declining are more likely to experience lower levels of population growth. Additionally, economies with scale and diversification may be more likely to retain, and/or attract residents relative to other areas.
Economic vulnerability | |||
---|---|---|---|
Description | City of Port Phillip | Greater Melbourne | Potential impact |
Economic output | |||
Gross regional product change | -14.8% | -13.3% | Some negative impact |
Local job impacts | |||
Local job change | -5.2% | -8.9% | Some negative impact |
Local job change (including JobKeeper recipients) | -15.1% | -14.7% | Negative impact |
Employed resident impacts | |||
Employed resident change | -5.3% | -8.9% | Some negative impact |
Employed resident change (including JobKeeper recipients) | -13.4% | -14.8% | Some negative impact |
Share of residents who work in LGA | 24.2% | - | - |
This indicator identifies communities with a high proportion of residents who have unmet social and economic needs (housing, income, education etc.) Due to COVID-19, these communities, particularly those with a younger, more mobile population, are expected to experience a greater change in how or where residents live (i.e. younger residents moving back home with their parents, formation of group households to share costs or leaving the area in search of employment opportunities elsewhere).
Resident vulnerability | |||
---|---|---|---|
Description | City of Port Phillip | Greater Melbourne | Potential impact |
Socioeconomic vulnerability | |||
SEIFA Rank (Disadvantage) | 1,069 | 1,021 | Some positive impact |
Disengaged youth of 15-24 year olds | 5.8% | 7.5% | Some negative impact |
Share of low income households | 14.8% | 16.7% | Some negative impact |
Housing vulnerability | |||
Share of households under housing stress | 10.1% | 11.7% | Some negative impact |
Mortgage vulnerability | |||
Share of households owned with mortgage | 20.8% | 34.3% | Low exposure |
Share of households under mortgage stress | 5.6% | 11.2% | Negligible impact |
Rental vulnerability | |||
Share of households privately rented | 44.0% | 25.8% | Exposed |
Share of households under rental stress | 18.1% | 27.4% | Some negative impact |
Residential mobility | |||
Share population of 18-39 year olds | 43.7% | 33.6% | Exposed |
Local amenity considers the amenity a region provides its residents, with a particular focus on access to affordable housing and access to lifestyle opportunities. It is an indicator of the livability of an area, in the context of COVID-19.
Local amenity | |||
---|---|---|---|
Description | City of Port Phillip | Greater Melbourne | Potential impact |
Housing Affordability | |||
Housing Median Value | $1,678,000 | $812,000 | Negative impact |
Unit Median Value | $574,000 | $552,000 | Negligible impact |
This page shows the latest version of how COVID-19 may impact population growth for City of Port Phillip. As new information becomes available (e.g. data revisions, additional data sets of relevance) updates will be applied.
Recent updates include:
Given the dynamic nature of COVID-19, revisions will be made to our population forecasts once sufficient data is available.
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