City of PlayfordPopulation forecast

This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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City of Playford

Births and deaths

In 2016 Virginia Growth Area (Buckland Park) is forecast to have the highest fertility rate of 3.59 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.39 in 2036.

The number of births in the City of Playford are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
City of PlayfordYearChange between 2016 and 2036
City of Playford2.522.32-0.20
Andrews Farm2.882.37-0.51
Angle Vale4.563.00-1.57
Davoren Park - Edinburgh North3.112.42-0.69
Elizabeth East2.512.74+0.23
Elizabeth North and Elizabeth Downs2.552.35-0.20
Elizabeth Park2.212.36+0.16
Elizabeth South, Elizabeth Grove and Elizabeth Vale2.332.43+0.09
Munno Para (Playford Alive)3.412.36-1.05
Munno Para (Railway)2.192.05-0.14
Munno Para West - Munno Para Downs2.852.11-0.75
One Tree Hill - Rural East1.152.87+1.72
Penfield Eyre1.141.81+0.66
Smithfield Plains3.302.42-0.88
Virginia Growth Area (Buckland Park)1.732.39+0.66
Virginia (Balance) - Rural West2.792.58-0.20

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in the City of Playford is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for the City of Playford, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.