City of OnkaparingaPopulation forecast
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Noarlunga Centre - Noarlunga Downs

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Noarlunga Centre - Noarlunga Downs indicate a 40.8% increase in population under working age, a 78.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 37.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Onkaparinga is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Noarlunga Centre - Noarlunga Downs - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 43147.74097.05126.8+198
5 to 92716.63786.44886.5+217
10 to 142195.33455.94335.8+214
15 to 192205.43305.64235.6+203
20 to 243017.33986.85006.7+199
25 to 293338.15008.56028.0+269
30 to 343047.44738.05777.7+273
35 to 392887.04086.95196.9+231
40 to 442466.03866.64986.6+252
45 to 492846.93435.84556.1+171
50 to 542616.43105.34285.7+167
55 to 592887.03195.43935.2+105
60 to 642195.32985.13624.8+143
65 to 692014.92694.63174.2+116
70 to 741944.72083.52793.7+85
75 to 79761.92023.42683.6+192
80 to 84330.81793.02142.9+181
85 and over511.21352.32393.2+188
Total persons4,103100.05,891100.07,508100.0+3,405

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, October 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 239 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 214 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 268 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 279 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 317 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 362 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 393 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 428 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 455 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 498 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 519 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 577 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 602 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 500 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 423 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 433 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 488 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 512 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 135 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 179 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 202 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 208 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 269 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 298 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 319 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 310 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 343 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 386 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 408 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 473 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 500 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 398 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 330 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 345 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 378 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 409 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 51 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 33 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 76 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 194 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 201 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 219 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 288 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 261 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 284 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 246 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 288 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 304 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 333 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 301 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 220 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 219 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 271 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 314
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 104 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 35 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 66 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 70 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: 49 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: 65 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: 74 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: 118 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 112 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: 112 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 111 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: 104 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 102 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: 103 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: 93 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 88 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 110 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 103 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2026: 84 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2026: 146 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2026: 126 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2026: 14 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2026: 68 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2026: 79 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2026: 31 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2026: 49 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2026: 59 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2026: 140 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2026: 120 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2026: 169 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2026: 167 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2026: 97 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2026: 110 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2026: 126 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2026: 107 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2026: 95
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Noarlunga Centre - Noarlunga Downs was ages 25 to 29, which accounted for 8.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 30 to 34, which is expected to increase by 169 and account for 8.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 500 persons.

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