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City of OnkaparingaPopulation forecast

City of Onkaparinga

Births and deaths

In 2017, Onkaparinga Hills is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.62 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.13 in 2036.

The number of births in the City of Onkaparinga are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
City of OnkaparingaYearChange between 2017 and 2036
City of Onkaparinga1.971.95-0.03
Aberfoyle Park1.841.90+0.06
Aldinga - Port Willunga2.332.13-0.20
Aldinga Beach1.931.80-0.13
Christie Downs2.051.96-0.09
Christies Beach2.031.97-0.06
Clarendon - Kangarilla - Blewitt Springs - Kuitpo - Dorset Vale1.921.96+0.04
Coromandel East - Cherry Gardens - Chandlers Hill - Ironbank2.542.30-0.24
Coromandel Valley1.942.06+0.11
Flagstaff Hill1.962.06+0.09
Hackham West2.112.03-0.08
Happy Valley2.002.05+0.05
Huntfield Heights1.881.80-0.07
Maslin Beach2.382.00-0.39
McLaren Flat1.591.91+0.32
McLaren Vale2.032.09+0.07
Morphett Vale1.861.81-0.05
Noarlunga Centre - Noarlunga Downs1.871.83-0.04
O'Halloran Hill - Darlington1.661.71+0.05
O'Sullivan Beach1.881.95+0.08
Old Noarlunga2.352.11-0.24
Old Reynella1.861.87+0.02
Onkaparinga Hills2.622.13-0.49
Port Noarlunga2.041.98-0.06
Port Noarlunga South2.232.21-0.02
Reynella East2.102.07-0.02
Seaford Heights2.142.38+0.23
Seaford Meadows2.302.03-0.27
Seaford Rise2.242.19-0.05
Sellicks Beach2.262.21-0.05
Willunga and Surrounds1.901.91+0.01
Hills South District1.841.99+0.15
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2020.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in the City of Onkaparinga is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for the City of Onkaparinga, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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