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Northern Beaches CouncilPopulation forecast

Northern Beaches Council

Births and deaths

In 2017, North Manly is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.89 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.75 in 2041.

The number of births in the Northern Beaches Council are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Northern Beaches CouncilYearChange between 2017 and 2041
Northern Beaches Council area1.841.80-0.04
Allambie Heights2.282.25-0.03
Avalon Beach - Clareville1.811.75-0.06
Balgowlah Heights - Clontarf2.442.36-0.08
Beacon Hill1.831.76-0.06
Belrose - Oxford Falls2.061.99-0.07
Church Point - Scotland Island - Ku-Ring-Gai Chase1.941.96+0.02
Collaroy Plateau2.001.91-0.09
Curl Curl - North Curl Curl2.332.20-0.13
Dee Why1.731.69-0.04
Elanora Heights2.071.98-0.09
Frenchs Forest1.971.90-0.08
Killarney Heights2.092.02-0.07
Manly (Eastern Hill)1.701.67-0.03
Manly (Pittwater Road)1.721.68-0.04
Manly (Town Centre)1.611.60-0.01
Manly Vale1.731.69-0.04
Mona Vale2.061.97-0.09
North Balgowlah2.412.34-0.06
North Manly2.892.75-0.15
North Narrabeen1.831.77-0.06
Palm Beach - Whale Beach1.621.63+0.02
Terrey Hills - Duffys Forest1.771.72-0.05
Wheeler Heights2.532.36-0.16
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), April 2022.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in the Northern Beaches Council is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for the Northern Beaches Council, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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