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City of NewcastlePopulation forecast

Newcastle - Newcastle East - Newcastle West

Population and age structure

Between [Parameter].[Year1Label] and 2022, the age structure forecasts for Newcastle - Newcastle East - Newcastle West indicate a 55.0% increase in population under working age, a 16.7% decrease in population of retirement age, and a 6.4% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Newcastle is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Newcastle - Newcastle East - Newcastle West - Total persons[Parameter].[Year1Label]20222046Change between [Parameter].[Year1Label] and 2046
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41772.82143.24943.2+316
5 to 91282.01962.93982.6+271
10 to 141131.82383.64222.8+309
15 to 191722.72764.15623.7+389
20 to 245468.671110.71,1727.7+625
25 to 2974011.677211.61,5059.8+765
30 to 3466110.46269.41,3819.0+720
35 to 394797.54566.81,1937.8+714
40 to 443665.83755.61,0987.2+732
45 to 493385.33835.81,0636.9+725
50 to 543755.94346.51,0987.2+723
55 to 594657.34116.21,0727.0+607
60 to 644577.24486.79606.3+503
65 to 693715.83735.67745.1+403
70 to 743826.03094.67074.6+325
75 to 792794.42123.25283.4+248
80 to 841943.01312.03742.4+181
85 and over1181.8941.44993.3+382
Total persons6,361100.06,658100.015,299100.0+8,938
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2046, prepared by .id (informed decisions), March 2024.

Key findings

In [Parameter].[Year1Label], the dominant age structure for persons in Newcastle - Newcastle East - Newcastle West was ages 25 to 29, which accounted for 11.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between [Parameter].[Year1Label] and 2022 is forecast to be in ages 20 to 24, which is expected to increase by 165 and account for 10.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2022 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 772 persons.

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