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City of NewcastlePopulation forecast

City of Newcastle

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for City of Newcastle indicate a 10.1% increase in population under working age, a 18.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 11.4% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Newcastle is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
City of Newcastle - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 49,8066.110,7145.911,7255.8+1,919
5 to 99,3305.810,0165.511,0115.4+1,681
10 to 148,3615.29,5565.310,4565.2+2,095
15 to 199,3715.811,6086.412,5276.2+3,156
20 to 2414,7589.215,5918.616,9248.4+2,165
25 to 2913,5728.414,9218.316,5188.2+2,946
30 to 3411,9607.413,8647.715,0557.5+3,094
35 to 3910,2346.412,3856.913,6746.8+3,440
40 to 4410,4306.511,6216.412,9556.4+2,525
45 to 4910,0496.210,9276.112,6036.2+2,554
50 to 549,9976.210,7055.912,0546.0+2,058
55 to 599,8906.110,0435.611,3735.6+1,483
60 to 648,4915.39,4545.210,4215.2+1,931
65 to 697,3144.58,8244.99,6644.8+2,351
70 to 745,6473.57,2224.08,4384.2+2,791
75 to 794,3942.75,4653.06,8563.4+2,462
80 to 843,2722.03,6432.04,9642.5+1,692
85 and over4,0462.54,0122.24,8322.4+787
Total persons160,919100.0180,573100.0202,049100.0+41,130
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in City of Newcastle was ages 20 to 24, which accounted for 9.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 15 to 19, which is expected to increase by 2,237 and account for 6.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 20 to 24 years, with a total of 15,591 persons.

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