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Murray Shire CouncilPopulation forecast

Murray Shire Council

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Murray Shire Council indicate a 40.6% increase in population under working age, a 43.4% increase in population of retirement age, and a 36.3% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Murray Shire Council is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Murray Shire Council - Total persons201620312051Change between 2016 and 2051
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,0015.81,4466.14,6256.5+3,624
5 to 91,1997.01,6036.85,6077.9+4,407
10 to 141,0876.31,5726.65,9238.4+4,836
15 to 191,0356.01,3555.74,4306.2+3,395
20 to 248945.21,2425.23,1474.4+2,253
25 to 298845.21,2855.43,5335.0+2,649
30 to 348675.11,3665.84,7016.6+3,834
35 to 398805.11,4196.05,4527.7+4,572
40 to 441,0986.41,4906.35,8168.2+4,718
45 to 491,1376.61,4676.24,8166.8+3,679
50 to 541,1856.91,4446.14,0215.7+2,835
55 to 591,1466.71,4706.23,4774.9+2,331
60 to 641,1486.71,4666.23,3874.8+2,239
65 to 691,2327.21,4436.13,1774.5+1,945
70 to 749125.31,2515.32,8354.0+1,922
75 to 797064.11,0094.32,4043.4+1,699
80 to 844132.47793.31,8372.6+1,424
85 and over2991.76272.61,7262.4+1,427
Total persons17,122100.023,734100.070,913100.0+53,791
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2051, prepared by .id (informed decisions), October 2020.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Murray Shire Council was ages 65 to 69, which accounted for 7.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 540 and account for 6.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 1,603 persons.

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