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Murray Shire CouncilPopulation forecast

Murray Shire Council

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Murray Shire Council indicate a 40.6% increase in population under working age, a 43.4% increase in population of retirement age, and a 36.3% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Murray Shire Council is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Murray Shire Council - Total persons201620312051Change between 2016 and 2051
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)1,0015.81,4466.14,6256.5+3,624
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)1,6159.42,2449.58,00811.3+6,393
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)1,3047.61,7707.56,4639.1+5,159
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)1,2977.61,7577.44,6366.5+3,339
Young workforce (25 to 34)1,75010.22,65111.28,23411.6+6,484
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)3,11418.24,37718.416,08322.7+12,969
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)2,33113.62,91412.37,49710.6+5,166
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)2,38013.92,90912.36,5649.3+4,184
Seniors (70 to 84)2,03111.93,03912.87,07710.0+5,046
Elderly aged (85 and over)2991.76272.61,7262.4+1,427
Total persons17,122100.023,734100.070,913100.0+53,791
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2051, prepared by .id (informed decisions), October 2020.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Murray Shire Council was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 18.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which is expected to increase by 1,263 and account for 18.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 4,377 persons.

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