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Murray Shire CouncilPopulation forecast

Stake Hill - Barragup - Nambeelup

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2036, the age structure forecasts for Stake Hill - Barragup - Nambeelup indicate a 1.0% decrease in population under working age, a 66.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 4.3% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Murray Shire Council is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Stake Hill - Barragup - Nambeelup - Total persons202120362051Change between 2021 and 2051
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4583.1784.0823.7+24
5 to 91035.6954.81034.70
10 to 141417.61266.41406.40
15 to 191749.41276.51466.7-29
20 to 241075.81005.11064.8-1
25 to 29593.2633.2653.0+6
30 to 34563.0643.3642.9+8
35 to 39814.4874.4974.5+16
40 to 441367.31276.41446.6+8
45 to 4919110.31487.51677.7-24
50 to 541779.51658.41848.4+7
55 to 591739.31768.91888.6+15
60 to 641377.41789.01697.7+32
65 to 69854.61407.11426.5+57
70 to 74583.11206.11285.9+70
75 to 79563.0914.61225.6+66
80 to 84432.3583.0944.3+50
85 and over191.0261.3452.0+25
Total persons1,856100.01,969100.02,185100.0+329
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2051, prepared by .id (informed decisions), July 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Stake Hill - Barragup - Nambeelup was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 10.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2036 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 62 and account for 6.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2036 is 60 to 64 years, with a total of 178 persons.

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