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Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast

Mornington Peninsula Shire

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Mornington Peninsula Shire will increase by an average of 571 dwellings per annum to 101,781 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Mornington Peninsula Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Forecast residential development, 2016 to 2036
Mornington Peninsula ShireChange in dwellings between 2016 and 2036
Mornington Peninsula Shire+11,424+12.6
Balnarring - Balnarring Beach - Merricks - Merricks Beach - Somers+133+4.5
Baxter - Pearcedale+96+9.9
Bittern - Crib Point+718+25.3
Dromana - Safety Beach+2,319+29.5
Flinders - Shoreham - Point Leo+110+6.8
HMAS Cerberus--0
Moorooduc - Tuerong+21+4.1
Mount Eliza+799+11.5
Mount Martha+792+9.5
Portsea - Sorrento - Blairgowrie+315+3.9
Red Hill - Red Hill South - Merricks North - Main Ridge - Arthurs Seat+81+5.1
Rosebud - Capel Sound - McCrae - Boneo - Fingal - Cape Schanck+2,184+14.8
Rye - Tootgarook - St Andrews Beach+983+8.1
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2017.

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