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Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast

Mornington Peninsula Shire

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Mornington Peninsula Shire indicate a 0.2% increase in population under working age, a 5.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 1.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Mornington Peninsula Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Mornington Peninsula Shire - Total persons202120262036Change between 2021 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 48,1794.88,9085.19,2005.1+1,021
5 to 99,4965.69,2405.39,8375.4+341
10 to 1410,5376.210,1305.810,3455.7-192
15 to 199,7455.710,1785.89,8655.4+120
20 to 247,7534.68,1844.78,3254.6+572
25 to 296,9304.17,0374.07,4524.1+522
30 to 348,0364.77,8844.58,1664.5+130
35 to 398,8535.29,1575.39,2515.1+398
40 to 449,2045.49,7335.69,9935.5+789
45 to 4911,0066.510,0935.810,6985.9-308
50 to 5411,7756.911,4606.611,1746.2-601
55 to 5911,4396.712,1797.011,5346.4+95
60 to 6411,9157.012,1927.012,7187.0+803
65 to 6911,8747.012,4247.113,2877.3+1,413
70 to 7412,0807.111,7426.712,6417.0+561
75 to 799,4305.510,7266.211,1646.2+1,734
80 to 846,1643.67,2454.28,3134.6+2,149
85 and over5,9743.55,7833.37,1744.0+1,200
Total persons170,390100.0174,296100.0181,138100.0+10,748
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), February 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Mornington Peninsula Shire was ages 70 to 74, which accounted for 7.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 1,296 and account for 6.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 12,424 persons.

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