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Mornington Peninsula ShirePopulation forecast

Mornington Peninsula Shire

Births and deaths

In 2017, Tyabb is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.36 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.35 in 2036.

The number of births in Mornington Peninsula Shire are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Mornington Peninsula ShireYearChange between 2017 and 2036
Area20172036Number
Mornington Peninsula Shire2.112.11-0.01
Balnarring - Balnarring Beach - Merricks - Merricks Beach - Somers2.212.16-0.05
Baxter - Pearcedale1.801.79-0.02
Bittern - Crib Point2.202.18-0.03
Dromana - Safety Beach2.152.13-0.01
Flinders - Shoreham - Point Leo2.172.16-0.02
Hastings2.242.22-0.03
HMAS Cerberus0.400.43+0.02
Moorooduc - Tuerong2.132.10-0.03
Mornington1.971.96-0.02
Mount Eliza2.272.24-0.03
Mount Martha2.222.21-0.01
Portsea - Sorrento - Blairgowrie1.931.930
Red Hill - Red Hill South - Merricks North - Main Ridge - Arthurs Seat2.242.27+0.03
Rosebud - Capel Sound - McCrae - Boneo - Fingal - Cape Schanck2.282.23-0.05
Rye - Tootgarook - St Andrews Beach2.292.290
Somerville2.192.18-0.01
Tyabb2.362.35-0.02
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Mornington Peninsula Shire is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Mornington Peninsula Shire, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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