Moorabool ShirePopulation forecast
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Bacchus Marsh and surrounds

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Bacchus Marsh and surrounds will increase by an average of 218 dwellings per annum to 12,749 in 2041.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Moorabool Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2011-13 dwelling additions are based on building approvals, lagged by 12-18 months. From 2013 onwards:

  • Manning Boulevard area - 23 dwellings (2012-2015)
  • 20 Somerton Court area - 110 dwellings (2012-2016)
  • Future potential greenfield development - 281 dwellings (2012-2021)
  • Summerfield North Estate - 87 dwellings (2012-2017)
  • Holts Lane area - 129 dwellings (2012-2020)
  • Future potential greenfield development - 281 dwellings (2012-2021)
  • Johansen Place - 130 dwellings (2012-2022)
  • Clifton Park Estate area - 2,551 dwellings (2012-2041)
  • Somerton Court area - 1,540 dwellings (2013-2037)
  • Future potential greenfield development - 281 dwellings (2012-2021)
  • Bellbrook Gardens Retirement Village - 31 dwellings (2015-2019)
  • Telford Park Estate area - 33 dwellings (2016-2020)
  • Small sites - 4 dwellings
  • Low-high level of in-centre development (5-25 dwellings per annum)
  • Low-high level of infill development (9-44 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2041 Total dwellings: 12,749 2040 Total dwellings: 12,580 2039 Total dwellings: 12,406 2038 Total dwellings: 12,222 2037 Total dwellings: 12,028 2036 Total dwellings: 11,827 2035 Total dwellings: 11,619 2034 Total dwellings: 11,405 2033 Total dwellings: 11,190 2032 Total dwellings: 10,974 2031 Total dwellings: 10,757 2030 Total dwellings: 10,540 2029 Total dwellings: 10,327 2028 Total dwellings: 10,123 2027 Total dwellings: 9,919 2026 Total dwellings: 9,715 2025 Total dwellings: 9,511 2024 Total dwellings: 9,312 2023 Total dwellings: 9,101 2022 Total dwellings: 8,889 2021 Total dwellings: 8,674 2020 Total dwellings: 8,441 2019 Total dwellings: 8,190 2018 Total dwellings: 7,928 2017 Total dwellings: 7,654 2016 Total dwellings: 7,368 2015 Total dwellings: 7,097 2014 Total dwellings: 6,861 2013 Total dwellings: 6,624 2012 Total dwellings: 6,404 2041 Total dwellings: 12,749 2040 Total dwellings: 12,580 2039 Total dwellings: 12,406 2038 Total dwellings: 12,222 2037 Total dwellings: 12,028 2036 Total dwellings: 11,827 2035 Total dwellings: 11,619 2034 Total dwellings: 11,405 2033 Total dwellings: 11,190 2032 Total dwellings: 10,974 2031 Total dwellings: 10,757 2030 Total dwellings: 10,540 2029 Total dwellings: 10,327 2028 Total dwellings: 10,123 2027 Total dwellings: 9,919 2026 Total dwellings: 9,715 2025 Total dwellings: 9,511 2024 Total dwellings: 9,312 2023 Total dwellings: 9,101 2022 Total dwellings: 8,889 2021 Total dwellings: 8,674 2020 Total dwellings: 8,441 2019 Total dwellings: 8,190 2018 Total dwellings: 7,928 2017 Total dwellings: 7,654 2016 Total dwellings: 7,368 2015 Total dwellings: 7,097 2014 Total dwellings: 6,861 2013 Total dwellings: 6,624 2012 Total dwellings: 6,404 2041 Forecast development: 169 2040 Forecast development: 174 2039 Forecast development: 184 2038 Forecast development: 194 2037 Forecast development: 201 2036 Forecast development: 208 2035 Forecast development: 214 2034 Forecast development: 215 2033 Forecast development: 216 2032 Forecast development: 217 2031 Forecast development: 217 2030 Forecast development: 213 2029 Forecast development: 204 2028 Forecast development: 204 2027 Forecast development: 204 2026 Forecast development: 204 2025 Forecast development: 199 2024 Forecast development: 211 2023 Forecast development: 212 2022 Forecast development: 215 2021 Forecast development: 233 2020 Forecast development: 251 2019 Forecast development: 262 2018 Forecast development: 274 2017 Forecast development: 286 2016 Forecast development: 271 2015 Forecast development: 236 2014 Forecast development: 237 2013 Forecast development: 220 2012 Forecast development: 195
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2015.
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