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Moorabool ShirePopulation forecast

Bacchus Marsh and Surrounds

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Bacchus Marsh and Surrounds indicate a 39.4% increase in population under working age, a 48.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 30.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Bacchus Marsh and Surrounds is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Bacchus Marsh and Surrounds - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,4797.32,0887.63,8708.4+2,391
5 to 91,5557.62,0737.53,9298.5+2,374
10 to 141,3316.51,9257.03,4667.5+2,135
15 to 191,3516.61,6976.22,9206.3+1,569
20 to 241,2586.21,5785.72,7726.0+1,514
25 to 291,3306.51,8056.63,1686.9+1,838
30 to 341,3276.51,9907.23,6397.9+2,312
35 to 391,3906.82,0737.53,7398.1+2,349
40 to 441,4036.91,9147.03,4677.5+2,064
45 to 491,4507.11,6926.12,9876.5+1,537
50 to 541,2786.31,5505.62,5075.4+1,229
55 to 591,2226.01,4655.32,0554.4+833
60 to 641,0915.31,3254.81,7513.8+661
65 to 691,0595.21,2704.61,5733.4+514
70 to 747703.81,1174.11,4253.1+654
75 to 794802.49353.41,2162.6+736
80 to 843011.55492.09012.0+600
85 and over3191.64671.78021.7+483
Total persons20,393100.027,512100.046,187100.0+25,793
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2020.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Bacchus Marsh and Surrounds was ages 5 to 9, which accounted for 7.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 683 and account for 7.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 2,088 persons.

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