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City of Moonee ValleyPopulation forecast

Ascot Vale Neighbourhood

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Ascot Vale Neighbourhood indicate a 32.9% increase in population under working age, a 53.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 43.3% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Ascot Vale Neighbourhood is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Ascot Vale Neighbourhood - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 49338.11,2587.71,7897.6+856
5 to 97086.28975.51,4206.0+712
10 to 145444.77494.61,1154.7+571
15 to 194824.27774.81,0594.5+577
20 to 247896.91,3188.11,6036.8+814
25 to 291,1039.61,70110.42,0858.8+982
30 to 341,17510.21,70210.42,2519.5+1,076
35 to 399438.21,5459.42,2019.3+1,258
40 to 448477.41,3788.42,0278.6+1,179
45 to 498567.51,0196.21,7697.5+913
50 to 547116.28495.21,4756.2+764
55 to 597236.37774.81,1975.1+474
60 to 645164.56073.79093.8+393
65 to 693993.55883.67363.1+337
70 to 742552.24312.66392.7+384
75 to 792101.83272.05322.3+322
80 to 841531.32191.34551.9+302
85 and over1421.22111.33791.6+237
Total persons11,489100.016,354100.023,641100.0+12,152
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, December 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Ascot Vale Neighbourhood was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 10.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 602 and account for 9.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 1,702 persons.

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