Mitchell ShirePopulation forecast
Skip to content

Mitchell Shire

Births and deaths

In 2017, Pyalong - Rural North West is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 3.81 (births per woman), this is expected to increase to 3.82 in 2041.

The number of births in Mitchell Shire are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Mitchell ShireYearChange between 2017 and 2041
Mitchell Shire2.272.34+0.07
Broadford area2.242.240
Kilmore - Kilmore East2.242.21-0.02
Pyalong - Rural North West3.813.82+0.02
Rural North East1.691.77+0.08
Wandong - Heathcote Junction area3.313.28-0.03

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2018.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Mitchell Shire is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Mitchell Shire, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.