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MidCoast CouncilPopulation forecast

MidCoast Council

Births and deaths

In 2017, Crowdy - Harrington - Johns River is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 3.38 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 3.19 in 2036.

The number of births in the MidCoast Council are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
MidCoast CouncilYearChange between 2017 and 2036
Area20172036Number
Mid-Coast Council2.242.04-0.21
Brimbin2.542.74+0.20
Bulahdelah - Central Rural2.272.28+0.01
Crowdy - Harrington - Johns River3.383.19-0.19
Cundletown2.172.07-0.11
Forster North1.841.74-0.10
Forster South - Green Point2.212.04-0.17
Gloucester1.621.610
Gloucester Balance2.393.15+0.75
Hallidays Point3.102.75-0.34
Hawks Nest - Tea Gardens2.782.55-0.22
Nabiac - Failford - Darawank - Rural North1.331.41+0.08
North Arm Cove - Pindimar - Nerong1.852.11+0.26
Old Bar - Wallabi1.561.44-0.12
Old Bar Balance2.392.42+0.02
Pacific Palms - Blueys Beach - Coomba Park2.542.33-0.20
Stroud - Rural West2.292.04-0.24
Taree2.111.88-0.24
Taree Balance2.372.11-0.26
Tuncurry2.051.88-0.17
Wingham2.181.94-0.24
Wingham Balance3.202.86-0.34
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, January 2018.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in the MidCoast Council is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for the MidCoast Council, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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