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City of MelvillePopulation forecast

City of Melville

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for City of Melville indicate a 7.1% increase in population under working age, a 25.4% increase in population of retirement age, and a 10.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Melville is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
City of Melville - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 45,3525.25,8275.16,3745.0+1,022
5 to 96,0915.96,2275.46,7335.3+642
10 to 146,1716.06,8095.97,3145.8+1,143
15 to 196,7066.57,8396.88,3766.6+1,671
20 to 247,2567.18,0667.08,8177.0+1,561
25 to 296,4446.36,9006.07,6796.1+1,235
30 to 346,1026.06,5235.77,1865.7+1,084
35 to 396,1266.07,2786.37,9526.3+1,826
40 to 446,7346.67,9386.98,6126.8+1,878
45 to 497,0096.88,0287.08,7616.9+1,753
50 to 546,8856.77,5066.58,3226.6+1,437
55 to 596,7706.66,8605.97,5486.0+778
60 to 646,2836.16,3785.56,7705.3+487
65 to 695,5825.55,8385.16,0134.7+431
70 to 744,0013.95,2494.65,5574.4+1,556
75 to 793,0983.04,6464.05,1024.0+2,004
80 to 842,5662.53,4253.04,4293.5+1,863
85 and over3,2173.13,9873.55,2104.1+1,993
Total persons102,389100.0115,324100.0126,754100.0+24,365
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), October 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in City of Melville was ages 20 to 24, which accounted for 7.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 1,548 and account for 4.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 20 to 24 years, with a total of 8,066 persons.

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