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City of MeltonPopulation forecast

Fraser Rise

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Fraser Rise indicate a 176.7% increase in population under working age, a 372.4% increase in population of retirement age, and a 213.7% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Melton is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Fraser Rise - Total persons202120312051Change between 2021 and 2051
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,08011.62,4398.52,2366.1+1,156
5 to 98158.82,4498.52,4346.7+1,619
10 to 147468.02,4198.42,6327.2+1,886
15 to 195445.81,9746.92,5817.1+2,037
20 to 244935.31,6725.82,0575.7+1,564
25 to 297047.62,1147.41,9995.5+1,295
30 to 341,15812.42,8169.82,4536.7+1,295
35 to 391,10811.92,99610.42,8247.8+1,716
40 to 448529.22,7049.42,9248.0+2,072
45 to 495576.02,1107.32,8507.8+2,293
50 to 543704.01,5015.22,5787.1+2,208
55 to 592933.21,1033.82,2376.2+1,944
60 to 642462.68503.01,8745.2+1,629
65 to 691811.95902.11,4554.0+1,274
70 to 74921.03921.41,1283.1+1,037
75 to 79430.52540.98562.4+814
80 to 84160.21700.66341.7+617
85 and over80.12000.76001.7+592
Total persons9,305100.028,752100.036,353100.0+27,048
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2051, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Fraser Rise was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 12.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 1,887 and account for 10.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 35 to 39 years, with a total of 2,996 persons.

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