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City of MeltonPopulation forecast

Melton Growth Areas

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Melton Growth Areas indicate a 229.6% increase in population under working age, a 439.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 236.4% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Melton is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Melton Growth Areas - Total persons202120312051Change between 2021 and 2051
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)4,77112.013,69210.120,3737.9+15,601
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)4,90812.317,14912.628,06410.9+23,156
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)2,4766.210,5527.821,0718.2+18,595
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)3,2598.211,0128.120,8918.1+17,632
Young workforce (25 to 34)9,87024.827,85620.540,88415.9+31,014
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)10,20725.637,09227.365,32925.4+55,122
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)2,3025.88,9756.626,41910.3+24,116
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)1,4423.64,9143.616,4246.4+14,982
Seniors (70 to 84)5941.53,8212.813,9275.4+13,333
Elderly aged (85 and over)410.18850.73,5871.4+3,547
Total persons39,872100.0135,948100.0256,969100.0+217,097
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2051, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Melton Growth Areas was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 25.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which is expected to increase by 26,885 and account for 27.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 37,092 persons.

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