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City of MeltonPopulation forecast

Melton Growth Areas

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Melton Growth Areas indicate a 229.6% increase in population under working age, a 439.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 236.4% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Melton is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Melton Growth Areas - Total persons202120312051Change between 2021 and 2051
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44,77112.013,69210.120,3737.9+15,601
5 to 93,7499.412,7079.320,3647.9+16,615
10 to 142,5686.410,1487.518,6127.2+16,044
15 to 191,7534.47,7865.716,4256.4+14,672
20 to 242,5746.58,0715.914,6265.7+12,051
25 to 294,11210.311,6998.617,4756.8+13,363
30 to 345,75914.416,15711.923,4109.1+17,651
35 to 395,22413.116,39112.125,3339.9+20,110
40 to 443,0467.612,3239.121,8328.5+18,785
45 to 491,9374.98,3786.218,1647.1+16,227
50 to 541,3213.35,3313.914,6035.7+13,282
55 to 599812.53,6432.711,8164.6+10,834
60 to 648112.02,7932.19,1803.6+8,369
65 to 696311.62,1211.67,2432.8+6,613
70 to 743690.91,6641.25,7092.2+5,340
75 to 791720.41,2190.94,6821.8+4,510
80 to 84530.19370.73,5361.4+3,482
85 and over410.18850.73,5871.4+3,547
Total persons39,872100.0135,948100.0256,969100.0+217,097
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2051, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Melton Growth Areas was ages 30 to 34, which accounted for 14.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 11,168 and account for 12.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 35 to 39 years, with a total of 16,391 persons.

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