City of MelbournePopulation forecast
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City of Melbourne

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for the City of Melbourne indicate a 178.7% increase in population under working age, a 156.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 90.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Melbourne is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
City of Melbourne - Total persons201620312041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44,9023.412,2844.215,4284.0+10,526
5 to 92,6881.88,6743.012,1323.2+9,444
10 to 142,0181.45,8162.09,2782.4+7,260
15 to 1911,5937.921,2227.226,9527.0+15,360
20 to 2431,75521.745,61315.554,61314.2+22,859
25 to 2928,31419.447,75316.356,08414.6+27,771
30 to 3419,08513.135,78812.242,60911.1+23,523
35 to 3910,2107.025,0668.530,7628.0+20,552
40 to 446,6394.519,0106.525,4086.6+18,770
45 to 495,4743.715,4125.322,7405.9+17,265
50 to 545,0713.512,6204.319,6865.1+14,614
55 to 594,5943.110,4583.616,1324.2+11,538
60 to 644,0462.88,7083.012,8283.3+8,783
65 to 693,5802.57,5312.610,9552.9+7,376
70 to 742,3661.66,2412.19,4452.5+7,079
75 to 791,4921.04,6741.67,6142.0+6,123
80 to 849770.73,1891.15,5291.4+4,552
85 and over1,2940.93,3121.15,8281.5+4,534
Total persons146,096100.0293,371100.0384,024100.0+237,928

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, April 2019.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2041: 5,828 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2041: 5,529 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2041: 7,614 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2041: 9,445 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2041: 10,955 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2041: 12,828 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2041: 16,132 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2041: 19,686 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2041: 22,740 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2041: 25,408 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2041: 30,762 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2041: 42,609 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2041: 56,084 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2041: 54,613 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2041: 26,952 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2041: 9,278 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2041: 12,132 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2041: 15,428 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2031: 3,312 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2031: 3,189 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2031: 4,674 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2031: 6,241 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2031: 7,531 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2031: 8,708 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2031: 10,458 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2031: 12,620 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2031: 15,412 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2031: 19,010 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2031: 25,066 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2031: 35,788 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2031: 47,753 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2031: 45,613 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2031: 21,222 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2031: 5,816 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2031: 8,674 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2031: 12,284 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016: 1,294 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016: 977 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016: 1,492 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016: 2,366 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016: 3,580 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016: 4,046 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016: 4,594 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016: 5,071 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016: 5,474 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016: 6,639 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016: 10,210 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016: 19,085 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016: 28,314 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016: 31,755 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016: 11,593 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016: 2,018 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016: 2,688 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016: 4,902
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, April 2019.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2031 to 2041: 2,516 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2031 to 2041: 2,339 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2031 to 2041: 2,941 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2031 to 2041: 3,204 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2031 to 2041: 3,425 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2031 to 2041: 4,120 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2031 to 2041: 5,674 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2031 to 2041: 7,066 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2031 to 2041: 7,327 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2031 to 2041: 6,398 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2031 to 2041: 5,696 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2031 to 2041: 6,821 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2031 to 2041: 8,331 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2031 to 2041: 9,000 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2031 to 2041: 5,730 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2031 to 2041: 3,463 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2031 to 2041: 3,458 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2031 to 2041: 3,144 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2016 to 2031: 2,018 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2016 to 2031: 2,212 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2016 to 2031: 3,182 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2016 to 2031: 3,875 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2016 to 2031: 3,951 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2016 to 2031: 4,662 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2016 to 2031: 5,864 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2016 to 2031: 7,548 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2016 to 2031: 9,938 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2016 to 2031: 12,371 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2016 to 2031: 14,856 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2016 to 2031: 16,702 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2016 to 2031: 19,439 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2016 to 2031: 13,859 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2016 to 2031: 9,630 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2016 to 2031: 3,798 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2016 to 2031: 5,986 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2016 to 2031: 7,382
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, April 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in the City of Melbourne was ages 20 to 24, which accounted for 21.7% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 25 to 29, which is expected to increase by 19,439 and account for 16.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 47,753 persons.

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