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City of MelbournePopulation forecast

City of Melbourne

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for the City of Melbourne indicate a 178.7% increase in population under working age, a 156.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 90.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Melbourne is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
City of Melbourne - Total persons201620312041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44,9023.412,2844.215,4284.0+10,526
5 to 92,6881.88,6743.012,1323.2+9,444
10 to 142,0181.45,8162.09,2782.4+7,260
15 to 1911,5937.921,2227.226,9527.0+15,360
20 to 2431,75521.745,61315.554,61314.2+22,859
25 to 2928,31419.447,75316.356,08414.6+27,771
30 to 3419,08513.135,78812.242,60911.1+23,523
35 to 3910,2107.025,0668.530,7628.0+20,552
40 to 446,6394.519,0106.525,4086.6+18,770
45 to 495,4743.715,4125.322,7405.9+17,265
50 to 545,0713.512,6204.319,6865.1+14,614
55 to 594,5943.110,4583.616,1324.2+11,538
60 to 644,0462.88,7083.012,8283.3+8,783
65 to 693,5802.57,5312.610,9552.9+7,376
70 to 742,3661.66,2412.19,4452.5+7,079
75 to 791,4921.04,6741.67,6142.0+6,123
80 to 849770.73,1891.15,5291.4+4,552
85 and over1,2940.93,3121.15,8281.5+4,534
Total persons146,096100.0293,371100.0384,024100.0+237,928
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, April 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in the City of Melbourne was ages 20 to 24, which accounted for 21.7% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 25 to 29, which is expected to increase by 19,439 and account for 16.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 47,753 persons.

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