City of MelbournePopulation forecast
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City of Melbourne

Components of population change

The greatest population change for the City of Melbourne is forecast for the period from 2017 to 2021, which is expected to have a net increase of 55,171 people.

There are two ways in which populations can change, through net migration and/or through natural increase (births minus deaths). Some areas are more driven by one or other of these factors. Migration is largely driven by housing development, whereas natural increase is a function of the age of the population.

Components of population change
City of MelbourneForecast period
Component2012 to 20162017 to 20212022 to 20262027 to 20312032 to 20362037 to 2041
Births--8,33410,69412,62114,33016,009
Deaths--2,1172,9214,0035,3046,718
Natural increase/decrease--6,2177,7728,6189,0259,291
Net migration--43,25733,52033,86633,24332,599
Change in persons in non-private dwellings--5,6984,8353,4923,2823,213

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, April 2019.

Forecast population change
Forecast population change 2041 forecast population change: 8,880 2040 forecast population change: 9,061 2039 forecast population change: 8,979 2038 forecast population change: 9,171 2037 forecast population change: 9,013 2036 forecast population change: 9,048 2035 forecast population change: 9,080 2034 forecast population change: 9,114 2033 forecast population change: 9,141 2032 forecast population change: 9,169 2031 forecast population change: 8,711 2030 forecast population change: 9,297 2029 forecast population change: 9,247 2028 forecast population change: 9,461 2027 forecast population change: 9,260 2026 forecast population change: 9,253 2025 forecast population change: 9,945 2024 forecast population change: 9,427 2023 forecast population change: 9,418 2022 forecast population change: 8,084 2021 forecast population change: 11,030 2020 forecast population change: 10,424 2019 forecast population change: 9,853 2018 forecast population change: 10,820 2017 forecast population change: 13,045
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, April 2019.
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease 2041 Natural increase: 1,879 2040 Natural increase: 1,869 2039 Natural increase: 1,859 2038 Natural increase: 1,847 2037 Natural increase: 1,837 2036 Natural increase: 1,829 2035 Natural increase: 1,818 2034 Natural increase: 1,806 2033 Natural increase: 1,795 2032 Natural increase: 1,777 2031 Natural increase: 1,766 2030 Natural increase: 1,746 2029 Natural increase: 1,727 2028 Natural increase: 1,704 2027 Natural increase: 1,675 2026 Natural increase: 1,643 2025 Natural increase: 1,599 2024 Natural increase: 1,555 2023 Natural increase: 1,510 2022 Natural increase: 1,466 2021 Natural increase: 1,405 2020 Natural increase: 1,344 2019 Natural increase: 1,293 2018 Natural increase: 1,207 2017 Natural increase: 966 2041 Total deaths: 1,462 2040 Total deaths: 1,402 2039 Total deaths: 1,343 2038 Total deaths: 1,284 2037 Total deaths: 1,229 2036 Total deaths: 1,172 2035 Total deaths: 1,116 2034 Total deaths: 1,060 2033 Total deaths: 1,004 2032 Total deaths: 951 2031 Total deaths: 900 2030 Total deaths: 848 2029 Total deaths: 799 2028 Total deaths: 751 2027 Total deaths: 706 2026 Total deaths: 662 2025 Total deaths: 620 2024 Total deaths: 581 2023 Total deaths: 544 2022 Total deaths: 515 2021 Total deaths: 483 2020 Total deaths: 451 2019 Total deaths: 426 2018 Total deaths: 396 2017 Total deaths: 361 2041 Total births: 3,340 2040 Total births: 3,271 2039 Total births: 3,202 2038 Total births: 3,131 2037 Total births: 3,066 2036 Total births: 3,001 2035 Total births: 2,934 2034 Total births: 2,866 2033 Total births: 2,800 2032 Total births: 2,729 2031 Total births: 2,666 2030 Total births: 2,594 2029 Total births: 2,526 2028 Total births: 2,454 2027 Total births: 2,381 2026 Total births: 2,305 2025 Total births: 2,219 2024 Total births: 2,136 2023 Total births: 2,053 2022 Total births: 1,980 2021 Total births: 1,888 2020 Total births: 1,795 2019 Total births: 1,720 2018 Total births: 1,604 2017 Total births: 1,328 2041 Natural increase: 1,879 2040 Natural increase: 1,869 2039 Natural increase: 1,859 2038 Natural increase: 1,847 2037 Natural increase: 1,837 2036 Natural increase: 1,829 2035 Natural increase: 1,818 2034 Natural increase: 1,806 2033 Natural increase: 1,795 2032 Natural increase: 1,777 2031 Natural increase: 1,766 2030 Natural increase: 1,746 2029 Natural increase: 1,727 2028 Natural increase: 1,704 2027 Natural increase: 1,675 2026 Natural increase: 1,643 2025 Natural increase: 1,599 2024 Natural increase: 1,555 2023 Natural increase: 1,510 2022 Natural increase: 1,466 2021 Natural increase: 1,405 2020 Natural increase: 1,344 2019 Natural increase: 1,293 2018 Natural increase: 1,207 2017 Natural increase: 966 2041 Total deaths: 1,462 2040 Total deaths: 1,402 2039 Total deaths: 1,343 2038 Total deaths: 1,284 2037 Total deaths: 1,229 2036 Total deaths: 1,172 2035 Total deaths: 1,116 2034 Total deaths: 1,060 2033 Total deaths: 1,004 2032 Total deaths: 951 2031 Total deaths: 900 2030 Total deaths: 848 2029 Total deaths: 799 2028 Total deaths: 751 2027 Total deaths: 706 2026 Total deaths: 662 2025 Total deaths: 620 2024 Total deaths: 581 2023 Total deaths: 544 2022 Total deaths: 515 2021 Total deaths: 483 2020 Total deaths: 451 2019 Total deaths: 426 2018 Total deaths: 396 2017 Total deaths: 361 2041 Total births: 3,340 2040 Total births: 3,271 2039 Total births: 3,202 2038 Total births: 3,131 2037 Total births: 3,066 2036 Total births: 3,001 2035 Total births: 2,934 2034 Total births: 2,866 2033 Total births: 2,800 2032 Total births: 2,729 2031 Total births: 2,666 2030 Total births: 2,594 2029 Total births: 2,526 2028 Total births: 2,454 2027 Total births: 2,381 2026 Total births: 2,305 2025 Total births: 2,219 2024 Total births: 2,136 2023 Total births: 2,053 2022 Total births: 1,980 2021 Total births: 1,888 2020 Total births: 1,795 2019 Total births: 1,720 2018 Total births: 1,604 2017 Total births: 1,328
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, April 2019.
Forecast in, out and net migration
Forecast in, out and net migration 2041 Total net migration: 6,316 2040 Total net migration: 6,507 2039 Total net migration: 6,580 2038 Total net migration: 6,684 2037 Total net migration: 6,513 2036 Total net migration: 6,556 2035 Total net migration: 6,599 2034 Total net migration: 6,644 2033 Total net migration: 6,661 2032 Total net migration: 6,783 2031 Total net migration: 6,427 2030 Total net migration: 6,866 2029 Total net migration: 6,850 2028 Total net migration: 6,846 2027 Total net migration: 6,877 2026 Total net migration: 6,864 2025 Total net migration: 7,162 2024 Total net migration: 7,112 2023 Total net migration: 6,683 2022 Total net migration: 5,699 2021 Total net migration: 8,337 2020 Total net migration: 7,331 2019 Total net migration: 6,239 2018 Total net migration: 9,109 2017 Total net migration: 12,242 2041 Total out migration: 53,738 2040 Total out migration: 52,593 2039 Total out migration: 51,447 2038 Total out migration: 50,297 2037 Total out migration: 49,192 2036 Total out migration: 48,094 2035 Total out migration: 47,015 2034 Total out migration: 45,928 2033 Total out migration: 44,862 2032 Total out migration: 43,811 2031 Total out migration: 42,857 2030 Total out migration: 41,998 2029 Total out migration: 41,094 2028 Total out migration: 40,159 2027 Total out migration: 39,176 2026 Total out migration: 38,161 2025 Total out migration: 37,068 2024 Total out migration: 35,908 2023 Total out migration: 34,811 2022 Total out migration: 33,867 2021 Total out migration: 32,258 2020 Total out migration: 30,652 2019 Total out migration: 29,280 2018 Total out migration: 27,265 2017 Total out migration: 24,722 2041 Total in migration: 60,055 2040 Total in migration: 59,100 2039 Total in migration: 58,027 2038 Total in migration: 56,980 2037 Total in migration: 55,704 2036 Total in migration: 54,650 2035 Total in migration: 53,613 2034 Total in migration: 52,572 2033 Total in migration: 51,523 2032 Total in migration: 50,594 2031 Total in migration: 49,284 2030 Total in migration: 48,864 2029 Total in migration: 47,944 2028 Total in migration: 47,005 2027 Total in migration: 46,053 2026 Total in migration: 45,025 2025 Total in migration: 44,230 2024 Total in migration: 43,020 2023 Total in migration: 41,494 2022 Total in migration: 39,566 2021 Total in migration: 40,594 2020 Total in migration: 37,983 2019 Total in migration: 35,519 2018 Total in migration: 36,375 2017 Total in migration: 36,964 2041 Total net migration: 6,316 2040 Total net migration: 6,507 2039 Total net migration: 6,580 2038 Total net migration: 6,684 2037 Total net migration: 6,513 2036 Total net migration: 6,556 2035 Total net migration: 6,599 2034 Total net migration: 6,644 2033 Total net migration: 6,661 2032 Total net migration: 6,783 2031 Total net migration: 6,427 2030 Total net migration: 6,866 2029 Total net migration: 6,850 2028 Total net migration: 6,846 2027 Total net migration: 6,877 2026 Total net migration: 6,864 2025 Total net migration: 7,162 2024 Total net migration: 7,112 2023 Total net migration: 6,683 2022 Total net migration: 5,699 2021 Total net migration: 8,337 2020 Total net migration: 7,331 2019 Total net migration: 6,239 2018 Total net migration: 9,109 2017 Total net migration: 12,242 2041 Total out migration: 53,738 2040 Total out migration: 52,593 2039 Total out migration: 51,447 2038 Total out migration: 50,297 2037 Total out migration: 49,192 2036 Total out migration: 48,094 2035 Total out migration: 47,015 2034 Total out migration: 45,928 2033 Total out migration: 44,862 2032 Total out migration: 43,811 2031 Total out migration: 42,857 2030 Total out migration: 41,998 2029 Total out migration: 41,094 2028 Total out migration: 40,159 2027 Total out migration: 39,176 2026 Total out migration: 38,161 2025 Total out migration: 37,068 2024 Total out migration: 35,908 2023 Total out migration: 34,811 2022 Total out migration: 33,867 2021 Total out migration: 32,258 2020 Total out migration: 30,652 2019 Total out migration: 29,280 2018 Total out migration: 27,265 2017 Total out migration: 24,722 2041 Total in migration: 60,055 2040 Total in migration: 59,100 2039 Total in migration: 58,027 2038 Total in migration: 56,980 2037 Total in migration: 55,704 2036 Total in migration: 54,650 2035 Total in migration: 53,613 2034 Total in migration: 52,572 2033 Total in migration: 51,523 2032 Total in migration: 50,594 2031 Total in migration: 49,284 2030 Total in migration: 48,864 2029 Total in migration: 47,944 2028 Total in migration: 47,005 2027 Total in migration: 46,053 2026 Total in migration: 45,025 2025 Total in migration: 44,230 2024 Total in migration: 43,020 2023 Total in migration: 41,494 2022 Total in migration: 39,566 2021 Total in migration: 40,594 2020 Total in migration: 37,983 2019 Total in migration: 35,519 2018 Total in migration: 36,375 2017 Total in migration: 36,964
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, April 2019.
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