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City of MelbournePopulation forecast

City of Melbourne

Births and deaths

In 2017, Kensington is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 1.39 (births per woman), this is expected to increase to 1.49 in 2041.

The number of births in the City of Melbourne are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
City of MelbourneYearChange between 2017 and 2041
Area20172041Number
City of Melbourne0.780.89+0.11
Carlton0.630.67+0.05
Docklands0.951.02+0.07
East Melbourne0.750.84+0.09
Kensington1.391.49+0.10
Melbourne (CBD)0.520.58+0.06
Melbourne (Remainder)1.301.40+0.10
North Melbourne0.941.34+0.40
Parkville0.800.90+0.09
Port Melbourne0.791.02+0.23
South Yarra0.770.84+0.07
Southbank0.720.81+0.09
West Melbourne (Industrial)1.161.27+0.11
West Melbourne (Residential)0.760.97+0.21
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, April 2019.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in the City of Melbourne is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for the City of Melbourne, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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