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City of MaribyrnongPopulation forecast

North Precinct

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for North Precinct indicate a 35.9% increase in population under working age, a 54.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 33.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of North Precinct is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
North Precinct - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,2816.11,8256.42,7736.2+1,492
5 to 99394.51,2734.51,9354.4+996
10 to 148374.01,0573.71,6493.7+812
15 to 191,0545.01,5605.52,4095.4+1,355
20 to 242,30311.02,94010.44,50710.1+2,205
25 to 292,83713.63,57712.65,48712.3+2,649
30 to 342,49211.93,24411.44,93911.1+2,448
35 to 391,7548.42,4988.83,7928.5+2,038
40 to 441,4036.71,9136.72,9026.5+1,499
45 to 491,2736.11,6325.72,5725.8+1,300
50 to 541,1085.31,5395.42,3795.4+1,271
55 to 591,0635.11,4105.02,1634.9+1,099
60 to 647793.71,1334.01,7644.0+985
65 to 695822.89243.31,4563.3+874
70 to 743461.76472.31,1462.6+800
75 to 793071.54931.79562.2+649
80 to 842351.13121.17171.6+481
85 and over3291.64111.49262.1+597
Total persons20,923100.028,388100.044,472100.0+23,549
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id , the population experts, June 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in North Precinct was ages 25 to 29, which accounted for 13.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 30 to 34, which is expected to increase by 752 and account for 11.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 3,577 persons.

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