Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

*Please note, the 2021 Census was undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic, at a time where border restrictions had largely halted overseas in-migration for the 15 months prior. 2016-2021 net overseas migration levels reflect this and therefore should not necessarily be considered indicative of longer-term trends.

Mansfield Shire Council covers 3,850 square kilometres in Victoria’s High Country, approximately 100km northeast of Melbourne. The Shire is bounded by the Strathbogie Shire, Benalla and Wangaratta to the north, Wellington to the east, Baw Baw to the South and Yarra Ranges and Murrindindi Shire to the west.

Mansfield Shire is a predominantly rural area with Mansfield as its main service centre, as well as townships of Bonnie Doon, Jamieson, Merrijig, Goughs Bay and Merton. It comprises primarily public conservation, agricultural and public use land including Lake Eildon and Howqua River. Mount Buller and Mount Stirling Resorts are not part of Mansfield Shire however, are located entirely within the boundaries of the Shire and are popular outdoor recreation and tourism destinations in the region.

Agriculture and horticulture remain central to Mansfield Shire’s economy with cattle and sheep farming, seed production, grape and tomato production significant contributors. Industry clusters related to servicing the agriculture sector are also prevalent. Over 60% of land in Mansfield Shire is publicly owned and managed, with a large majority in the Alpine National Park.

Development History

Mansfield Shire is located on Taungurung Country covering a large part of Central Victoria from Heathcote and Kilmore in the west, to Euroa and Rushworth in the north, Mount Buller in the east and Marysville in the south.

The first European settlers arrived in the area in the mid-19th century in search of a new run for cattle and horses, as agricultural land near Euroa became overstocked. The township of Mansfield emerged around this same time, supported by the construction of High St and Highett St. Mansfield Shire is connected to Melbourne and Euroa via the Maroondah Hwy and Benalla and the Hume Hwy via the Midland Hwy.

Growth in the Shire has been supported by agriculture and tourism, with easy access to Mount Buller and Mount Stirling.

Migration Patterns

Mansfield Shire typically attracts young families (children aged 0-10 and adults aged 30-45), with older residents (60+) also moving for lifestyle and access to aged care services. There is net outward migration of residents aged 15-20 from Mansfield Shire, with young adults leaving to major cities for education and lifestyle reasons.

Mansfield experiences significant seasonal migration influencing usual resident population figures, with many people moving to the region for the snow season due to its proximity to Mount Buller and Mount Stirling.

The Shire saw a significant population growth spike during COVID with residents looking for a ‘tree-change’ moving to the region from Metropolitan Melbourne and fewer young adults able to leave the region, as they usually would.

Housing Role and Function

Mansfield Shire has a higher proportion of couples without children than Regional Victoria, with Mansfield township also attracting a large proportion of lone person households. Bonnie Doon and surrounds and Merrijig - High Country have similar housing profiles with approximately 50-60% of households being couples with/without children. Jamieson - Goughs Bay - Upper Goulburn attracts a larger proportion of lone person households than other areas of Mansfield Shire.

The largest age group across Mansfield Shire is 60-69 year olds, contributing to the large proportion of couples without children household types. Merrijig - High Country differs to the rest of the Shire, having a relatively large proportion of 10-19 year olds.

Housing Supply

Supply of residential property within the LGA will have an influence on population structure and household type representation throughout the forecast period. In the short-medium term, housing supply will be focused around existing development in Mansfield town and surrounds, with an average of 98 net additional dwellings per year across the forecast period.

Opportunities for future housing supply have been identified Bonnie Doon and Merrijig - High Country, primarily through rezoning to support residential development.