City of MandurahPopulation forecast
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City of Mandurah

Drivers of population change

Development history

The City of Mandurah is located in Western Australia's Peel Region, between 55 and 95 kilometres south of Perth. The City is predominantly residential, with areas of National Park in the south. The City includes significant areas of Indian Ocean, Peel Inlet and Harvey Estuary foreshore. Early settlement in the City dates from the 1830s, when Thomas Peel and a number of pioneers set up in what is now Mandurah. Development of the area remained slow until a road was built to the region and a ferry across the estuary opened in 1850. Early industries included fishing, fruit growing and canning. From the turn of the twentieth century, the area became renowned as a holiday destination, and tourism became an important contributor to the local economy. In the immediate post war era, significant growth was experienced, much of it the form of holiday dwellings. From the 1970s onwards, significant growth occurred in permanent dwellings and the population of the area increased substantially.

Migration patterns

The primary housing market role that the City of Mandurah has played in the post war period has been to provide home owning opportunities for two distinct markets - young family households and retirees, generally from metropolitan Perth.

There is continued demand for residential development within the City, catering for both people moving from Perth and also new households being formed from within the existing population of the City of Mandurah.

Historical migration flows, City of Mandurah, 2016-2011
Historical migration flows, City of Mandurah, 2016-2011
'Overseas' refers to arrivals only.

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, October 2017.

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago.

Housing role and function

With the variety of residential areas, natural characteristics and period of development, different areas within the City of Mandurah have developed different roles within the housing market. Many areas attract both families, as well as empty-nesters and retirees, such as Coodanup, Dawesville - Bouvard - Herron - Clifton, Halls Head, Madora Bay, Meadow Springs and Wannanup. Silver Sands - San Remo tends to attract a mature family market. By contrast, areas with greater foreshore access such as Dudley Park, Erskine, Falcon, as well as Greenfields - Parklands (with a large number of retirement villages) are more attractive to retirees and empty-nesters.

Growth areas such as Lakelands tend to attract a broad-based market with the majority of migrants to the area aged under 50. The centre of Mandurah is attractive to both young adults as well as childless adults and retirees. The variety of function and role of the small areas in the City of Mandurah means that population outcomes differ significantly across the City.

Housing supply

There are also significant differences in the supply of future residential land within the City which will also influence population and household futures over the forecast period. Significant new development opportunities have been identified in almost all areas in the City of Mandurah, most notably Lakelands, Dawesville - Bouvard - Herron - Clifton, Mandurah and Madora Bay. There is likely to be other greenfield and infill development opportunities throughout the City, albeit at lower levels than the major growth areas identified above. On the other hand, there are limited opportunities for future residential development in Silver Sands-San Remo which means that population growth is expected to be very modest . Some household growth is assumed through the conversion of holiday homes to permanent residences, as reflected in a decline in household vacancy rates. Overall, the population of the City is expected to increase from around 83,100 in 2016 to 119,880 in 2016.

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