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Macedon Ranges ShirePopulation forecast

Kyneton District

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Kyneton District indicate a 3.1% increase in population under working age, a 7.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 9.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the Macedon Ranges Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kyneton District - Total persons202120262036Change between 2021 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44995.15465.26125.2+112
5 to 96506.65805.56515.6+1
10 to 145695.86456.16405.5+71
15 to 195055.15515.25805.0+75
20 to 243873.94424.24814.1+94
25 to 294004.14334.14694.0+69
30 to 344534.65235.05564.8+104
35 to 395615.76065.76675.7+106
40 to 446086.26826.57416.3+133
45 to 497567.77507.18357.1+79
50 to 547407.58167.78767.5+136
55 to 596626.77647.28497.2+187
60 to 646977.17256.98787.5+182
65 to 696466.67246.98367.1+190
70 to 746406.56195.97246.2+84
75 to 794364.44944.75454.7+109
80 to 842872.93393.23853.3+98
85 and over3113.23082.93823.3+71
Total persons9,805100.010,546100.011,707100.0+1,902
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), January 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Kyneton District was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 7.7% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 55 to 59, which is expected to increase by 102 and account for 7.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 50 to 54 years, with a total of 816 persons.

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