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Macedon Ranges ShirePopulation forecast

Gisborne District

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Gisborne District indicate a 7.9% increase in females under working age, a 15.3% increase in females of retirement age, and a 8.5% increase in females of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the Macedon Ranges Shire is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Gisborne District - Total females202120262036Change between 2021 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44626.45146.57046.8+242
5 to 95507.65677.17667.4+216
10 to 145417.55947.57527.3+211
15 to 194726.55126.56636.4+191
20 to 242934.03324.24554.4+162
25 to 292663.72763.53833.7+117
30 to 343314.63975.05435.2+212
35 to 395497.65266.67387.1+189
40 to 445717.96458.18177.9+246
45 to 495788.06167.87817.6+203
50 to 545157.15727.27327.1+217
55 to 594786.65126.56496.3+171
60 to 644225.84675.95815.6+159
65 to 693244.53884.94814.7+157
70 to 743635.02983.84033.9+40
75 to 792423.33003.83173.1+75
80 to 841351.92302.92672.6+132
85 and over1522.11862.33083.0+156
Total persons7,245100.07,933100.010,340100.0+3,094
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), January 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for females in Gisborne District was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 8.0% of the total females.

The largest increase in females between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 80 to 84, which is expected to increase by 95 and account for 2.9% of the total females.

The largest female 5 year age group in 2026 is 40 to 44 years, with a total of 645 females.

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