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Macedon Ranges ShirePopulation forecast

Gisborne District

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Gisborne District indicate a 25.9% increase in population under working age, a 46.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 14.9% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Gisborne District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Gisborne District - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,0127.61,2067.41,5617.6+549
5 to 91,0648.01,3648.41,7188.4+654
10 to 149827.41,2797.91,5967.8+614
15 to 198996.71,0646.51,3436.6+444
20 to 246925.27924.91,0205.0+328
25 to 295544.26864.28694.2+315
30 to 347625.77664.79804.8+218
35 to 398886.71,0196.31,3186.4+430
40 to 441,0417.81,1617.11,4247.0+383
45 to 491,0197.61,0966.71,3356.5+316
50 to 549377.01,1026.81,3116.4+374
55 to 598536.49886.11,1345.5+281
60 to 646695.08785.41,0655.2+396
65 to 697135.38425.21,0225.0+309
70 to 745344.06894.29124.5+378
75 to 793162.46043.77673.8+451
80 to 841881.43842.45352.6+347
85 and over2221.73772.35442.7+322
Total persons13,345100.016,297100.020,454100.0+7,109
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2017.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Gisborne District was ages 5 to 9, which accounted for 8.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 5 to 9, which is expected to increase by 300 and account for 8.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 1,364 persons.

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