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City of KnoxPopulation forecast

Scoresby

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2031, the age structure forecasts for Scoresby indicate a 16.9% decrease in population under working age, a 21.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 2.0% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Knox is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Scoresby - Total persons202120312046Change between 2021 and 2046
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42694.42704.55445.2+275
5 to 93595.92894.85705.4+211
10 to 144657.63495.86796.5+215
15 to 194196.83836.36686.4+249
20 to 243896.33816.36876.6+298
25 to 293896.43696.17517.2+362
30 to 343195.23485.87206.9+401
35 to 394537.44217.08588.2+406
40 to 445118.34787.99689.2+458
45 to 495258.65288.79559.1+430
50 to 544387.24697.87587.2+319
55 to 593966.54066.75875.6+191
60 to 643565.83295.44574.4+101
65 to 692824.62854.73663.5+84
70 to 742994.92604.33103.0+11
75 to 791041.72043.42472.4+143
80 to 84911.51823.01861.8+96
85 and over591.0811.31651.6+105
Total persons6,123100.06,033100.010,477100.0+4,354
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2046, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in Scoresby was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 8.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2031 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 100 and account for 3.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2031 is 45 to 49 years, with a total of 528 persons.

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