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City of KnoxPopulation forecast


Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Scoresby indicate a 0.6% decrease in population under working age, a 24.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 2.8% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Scoresby is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Scoresby - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 43585.73765.97006.3+342
5 to 94136.63976.27376.7+324
10 to 144366.94276.77777.0+341
15 to 194356.94517.17797.1+344
20 to 244517.24076.46956.3+244
25 to 294186.63675.86666.0+248
30 to 344026.43725.96876.2+285
35 to 394567.24276.77927.2+336
40 to 444777.64957.89108.2+433
45 to 494707.55198.29348.5+464
50 to 544457.14757.58267.5+381
55 to 594206.73886.16345.7+214
60 to 643665.83195.04804.3+114
65 to 693425.42904.63743.4+32
70 to 741963.12413.83152.9+120
75 to 791061.72003.12692.4+163
80 to 84751.21231.92352.1+159
85 and over370.6891.42262.0+189
Total persons6,302100.06,362100.011,036100.0+4,735
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Scoresby was ages 40 to 44, which accounted for 7.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 94 and account for 3.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 45 to 49 years, with a total of 519 persons.

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