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City of KnoxPopulation forecast

Ferntree Gully

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Ferntree Gully indicate a 5.5% increase in males under working age, a 29.0% increase in males of retirement age, and a 1.0% increase in males of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Ferntree Gully is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Ferntree Gully - Total males201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 49006.79396.61,0076.5+107
5 to 98896.69196.49896.3+100
10 to 147925.98656.09416.0+150
15 to 198156.08556.09255.9+110
20 to 249036.78636.09546.1+51
25 to 299857.39756.81,0626.8+77
30 to 349617.11,0217.11,1027.1+141
35 to 399937.31,0417.31,1217.2+128
40 to 449767.21,0017.01,0977.0+121
45 to 499396.99176.41,0106.5+71
50 to 548916.68515.99205.9+29
55 to 598366.28265.88675.6+32
60 to 647315.47745.47845.0+53
65 to 696985.26964.97214.6+23
70 to 744903.66034.26494.2+159
75 to 793612.75533.95873.8+227
80 to 841911.43472.44733.0+282
85 and over1621.22541.83732.4+210
Total persons13,512100.014,299100.015,581100.0+2,069
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), May 2018.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for males in Ferntree Gully was ages 35 to 39, which accounted for 7.3% of the total males.

The largest increase in males between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 192 and account for 3.9% of the total males.

The largest male 5 year age group in 2026 is 35 to 39 years, with a total of 1,041 males.

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