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This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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Cheltenham

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Cheltenham will increase by an average of 117 dwellings per annum to 10,586 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in the City of Kingston. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Over the 2016 to 2036 period, it is anticipated that the majority of development in Cheltenham will occur within the Cheltenham Activity Centre. Council's Structure Plan informed assumptions regarding the activity centre, where an additional 1,634 dwellings are forecast. Major developments within the Activity Centre and the broader area of Cheltenham for the period 2011 to 2016 have been adjusted to reflect Census results. Assumptions beyond 2016 include:

  • Central Park - 208 dwellings (2014-2017)
  • Jean Street Multi Dwellings - 25 dwellings (2016-2017)
  • 18 Barrett Street - 10 dwellings (2017)
  • The Village Cheltenham - 190 dwellings (2018)
  • Sapphire Apartments - 35 dwellings (2018)
  • 273-275 Charman Road - 16 dwellings (2018)
  • 2-6 Railway Road - 115 dwellings (2018)
  • Garfield Street Apartments - 22 dwellings (2019)
  • Charman St Mixed Use - 36 dwellings (2019)
  • 1234 Nepean Hwy - 79 dwellings (2021)
  • 261-267 Charman Road - 18 dwellings (2021)
  • Infill development of 9-28 dwellings per annum
  • Centres development of 15-87 dwellings per annum

Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 10,586 2035 Total dwellings: 10,488 2034 Total dwellings: 10,389 2033 Total dwellings: 10,290 2032 Total dwellings: 10,191 2031 Total dwellings: 10,092 2030 Total dwellings: 9,963 2029 Total dwellings: 9,834 2028 Total dwellings: 9,713 2027 Total dwellings: 9,597 2026 Total dwellings: 9,489 2025 Total dwellings: 9,381 2024 Total dwellings: 9,278 2023 Total dwellings: 9,180 2022 Total dwellings: 9,087 2021 Total dwellings: 8,994 2020 Total dwellings: 8,847 2019 Total dwellings: 8,802 2018 Total dwellings: 8,709 2017 Total dwellings: 8,318 2036 Total dwellings: 10,586 2035 Total dwellings: 10,488 2034 Total dwellings: 10,389 2033 Total dwellings: 10,290 2032 Total dwellings: 10,191 2031 Total dwellings: 10,092 2030 Total dwellings: 9,963 2029 Total dwellings: 9,834 2028 Total dwellings: 9,713 2027 Total dwellings: 9,597 2026 Total dwellings: 9,489 2025 Total dwellings: 9,381 2024 Total dwellings: 9,278 2023 Total dwellings: 9,180 2022 Total dwellings: 9,087 2021 Total dwellings: 8,994 2020 Total dwellings: 8,847 2019 Total dwellings: 8,802 2018 Total dwellings: 8,709 2017 Total dwellings: 8,318 2036 Forecast development: 98 2035 Forecast development: 99 2034 Forecast development: 99 2033 Forecast development: 99 2032 Forecast development: 99 2031 Forecast development: 129 2030 Forecast development: 129 2029 Forecast development: 121 2028 Forecast development: 116 2027 Forecast development: 108 2026 Forecast development: 108 2025 Forecast development: 103 2024 Forecast development: 98 2023 Forecast development: 93 2022 Forecast development: 93 2021 Forecast development: 147 2020 Forecast development: 45 2019 Forecast development: 93 2018 Forecast development: 391 2017 Forecast development: 70
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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