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City of KingstonPopulation forecast

Mordialloc Planning Area

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Mordialloc Planning Area indicate a --% decrease in population under working age, a 30.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 10.3% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Mordialloc Planning Area is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Mordialloc Planning Area - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 49406.69265.99205.6-20
5 to 91,0527.49976.49695.9-83
10 to 149566.81,0246.59866.0+30
15 to 197465.31,0096.49525.8+206
20 to 247335.28565.58835.3+150
25 to 298596.18215.28735.3+14
30 to 349576.89666.29835.9+26
35 to 391,1027.81,1167.11,1026.70
40 to 441,2498.81,2027.71,1767.1-73
45 to 491,1818.31,2177.81,1817.10
50 to 549176.51,1977.61,1336.9+216
55 to 598265.81,0466.71,0626.4+236
60 to 647225.18175.29775.9+255
65 to 695423.87164.68945.4+352
70 to 744092.95823.77484.5+339
75 to 793192.34252.75893.6+270
80 to 842741.92951.94482.7+174
85 and over3682.64693.06534.0+285
Total persons14,152100.015,681100.016,531100.0+2,380
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), September 2020.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Mordialloc Planning Area was ages 40 to 44, which accounted for 8.8% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 50 to 54, which is expected to increase by 280 and account for 7.6% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 45 to 49 years, with a total of 1,217 persons.

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