Kempsey ShirePopulation forecast
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South West Rocks - Jerseyville

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in South West Rocks - Jerseyville will increase by an average of 71 dwellings per annum to 4,519 in 2036.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Kempsey Shire. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

Dwelling counts for 2016 have been adjusted to reflect Census results. Specific assumptions from 2017 onwards:

  • Yulgiibar Place residual - 15 dwellings (2012-2015)
  • Links View Close - 18 dwellings (2012-2017)
  • Sea Change Estate and Mango Tree Estate (Tallowwood Pl/Racemosa Circuit); - 31 dwellings (2012-2020)
  • The Rocks Village - 51 dwellings (2012-2030)
  • Seascape Grove (Rosedale Ave/Belle O'Connor St) - 98 dwellings (2012-2031)
  • Seascape East (SQRUIA 4) - 129 dwellings (2014-2036)
  • Saltwater - South West Rocks - 553 dwellings (2015-2036)
  • Old School Site (19 Gregory Street) - 29 dwellings (2017-2018)
  • The Coast South West Rocks development - 217 dwellings (2018-2036)
  • Parkview Estate - 43 dwellings (2020-2036)
  • Settler's Ridge - 103 dwellings (2020-2036)
  • Bruce Field Street - future potential - 15 dwellings (2021-2027)
  • Lot 3 South West Rocks Road - 21 dwellings (2022-2033)
  • Gothic Street New Residential Area (SWRUIA 3) - 26 dwellings (2023-2036)
  • Caltex Site (SWRUIA 5) - 22 dwellings (2024-2035)
  • Shell Site (SWRUIA 2) - 36 dwellings (2025-2036)
  • Small sites - 9 dwellings (2016-2024)
  • Low level of Infill development (2-7 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2036 Total dwellings: 4,519 2035 Total dwellings: 4,432 2034 Total dwellings: 4,344 2033 Total dwellings: 4,256 2032 Total dwellings: 4,167 2031 Total dwellings: 4,084 2030 Total dwellings: 4,005 2029 Total dwellings: 3,924 2028 Total dwellings: 3,845 2027 Total dwellings: 3,766 2026 Total dwellings: 3,686 2025 Total dwellings: 3,609 2024 Total dwellings: 3,532 2023 Total dwellings: 3,461 2022 Total dwellings: 3,397 2021 Total dwellings: 3,341 2020 Total dwellings: 3,294 2019 Total dwellings: 3,249 2018 Total dwellings: 3,210 2017 Total dwellings: 3,161 2036 Total dwellings: 4,519 2035 Total dwellings: 4,432 2034 Total dwellings: 4,344 2033 Total dwellings: 4,256 2032 Total dwellings: 4,167 2031 Total dwellings: 4,084 2030 Total dwellings: 4,005 2029 Total dwellings: 3,924 2028 Total dwellings: 3,845 2027 Total dwellings: 3,766 2026 Total dwellings: 3,686 2025 Total dwellings: 3,609 2024 Total dwellings: 3,532 2023 Total dwellings: 3,461 2022 Total dwellings: 3,397 2021 Total dwellings: 3,341 2020 Total dwellings: 3,294 2019 Total dwellings: 3,249 2018 Total dwellings: 3,210 2017 Total dwellings: 3,161 2036 Forecast development: 87 2035 Forecast development: 88 2034 Forecast development: 88 2033 Forecast development: 89 2032 Forecast development: 83 2031 Forecast development: 79 2030 Forecast development: 81 2029 Forecast development: 79 2028 Forecast development: 79 2027 Forecast development: 80 2026 Forecast development: 77 2025 Forecast development: 77 2024 Forecast development: 71 2023 Forecast development: 64 2022 Forecast development: 56 2021 Forecast development: 47 2020 Forecast development: 45 2019 Forecast development: 39 2018 Forecast development: 49 2017 Forecast development: 52
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, November 2017.
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