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Hornsby Shire CouncilPopulation forecast

Hornsby Shire Council

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for the Hornsby Shire Council indicate a 9.2% increase in population under working age, a 26.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 10.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the Hornsby Shire Council is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Hornsby Shire Council - Total persons201620262036Change between 2016 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 48,9446.19,8125.910,4985.8+1,554
5 to 910,3567.010,7646.511,2976.3+942
10 to 149,7626.611,1586.711,4726.4+1,710
15 to 199,9986.811,1396.711,3906.3+1,392
20 to 249,0236.19,4755.710,4875.8+1,465
25 to 297,5055.18,9085.410,0835.6+2,578
30 to 348,5945.810,2726.211,2176.2+2,622
35 to 399,9976.811,5667.012,5677.0+2,570
40 to 4411,3307.712,4287.513,3317.4+2,001
45 to 4911,0097.512,1147.313,0157.2+2,006
50 to 5410,4757.111,1186.711,8226.6+1,348
55 to 599,5486.59,5425.710,2825.7+734
60 to 647,8915.38,4705.19,0115.0+1,120
65 to 696,9514.77,5874.67,8304.4+879
70 to 745,3523.66,4713.97,0913.9+1,739
75 to 794,1642.85,7663.56,5443.6+2,380
80 to 842,9612.04,3742.65,4223.0+2,461
85 and over3,8022.65,1953.16,2223.5+2,420
Total persons147,661100.0166,158100.0179,582100.0+31,921
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, February 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in the Hornsby Shire Council was ages 40 to 44, which accounted for 7.7% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 30 to 34, which is expected to increase by 1,677 and account for 6.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 40 to 44 years, with a total of 12,428 persons.

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