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Hornsby Shire CouncilPopulation forecast

Hornsby Shire Council

Births and deaths

In 2017, North Epping is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.40 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.32 in 2036.

The number of births in Hornsby Shire Council are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
Hornsby Shire CouncilYearChange between 2017 and 2036
Hornsby Shire1.741.67-0.07
Arcadia - North Western Rural2.152.09-0.06
Beecroft - Cheltenham1.791.76-0.03
Castle Hill1.391.39-0.01
Galston - Middle Dural1.821.77-0.04
Hornsby Heights2.212.18-0.04
Mount Colah - Mount Kuring-gai1.841.81-0.03
North Epping2.402.32-0.07
Pennant Hills1.591.58-0.01
West Pennant Hills1.521.49-0.03
Berowra Heights - North Eastern Rural Balance1.971.93-0.04
Hornsby Town Centre1.271.26-0.01
Hornsby Balance1.691.66-0.03
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id (informed decisions), February 2019.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Hornsby Shire Council is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Hornsby Shire Council, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.

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