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City of GosnellsPopulation forecast

City of Gosnells

Drivers of population change

Development history

The City of Gosnells is a growing residential area, located in Perth’s south-eastern suburbs, about 17 kilometres from the Perth CBD. The City encompasses substantial rural areas in the east and south, and some commercial and industrial areas, particularly along the Albany Highway. The majority of the population live in suburbs west of the Albany Highway.

Significant development did not occur until the post-war years. The population grew from 7,400 in 1954 to about 11,000 in 1966, and then to 21,000 in 1970. From the 1950s to the 1980s rapid growth took place along the Albany Highway, the Canning River and the Southern River (the suburbs of Beckenham, Gosnells, Kenwick, Langford, Maddington and Thornlie). The suburb of Huntingdale was developed from the 1970s. The population of the City continued to increase from the early 1990s, rising from 69,500 in 1991 to over 90,000 in 2006. Much of this growth has been from new residential development in the suburbs of Canning Vale, and more recently, Southern River.

Migration patterns

The primary housing market role that the City has been to provide affordable home owning opportunities for families and prospective families from southern Perth. This role is likely to continue in the short term with the continued development of the growth areas of Canning Vale and Southern River and the re-zoning of market gardens for residential development; however, in the longer term, these patterns are expected to change. The availability of large tracts of ’greenfield’ land and suitable sites is decreasing within the City, whilst significant sites are being made available in the neighbouring area of the City of Armadale, which is likely, in future, to meet an increasing proportion of the regional demand for housing.

The City has been a beneficiary of migration gain from a number of surrounding areas, most notably the Cities of Canning and Melville. The City of Gosnells has also gained, in net terms, from overseas and from interstate sources. The rates of growth are likely to remain high over the next few years, as continued demand from southern Perth, from external sources and from within the City is sustained. The City has also continued to lose population to the Southern Fringe of Perth (notably Rockingham and Serpentine Jarrahdale) and the South West SD (Busselton, Bunbury and Margaret River), which is a trend that is likely to continue. It is also expected that, as development increases within the growth areas of the City of Armadale, there will be a net loss of population to Armadale as development opportunities within Gosnells decreases (as growth areas become fully developed) and the population of the City ages and families mature.

Historical migration flows, City of Gosnells, 2011-2016

Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals based on answers to the census question "where did the person usually live 5-years ago" and .id estimates of international out-migration.

Housing role and function

The City of Gosnells comprises significant diversity in terms of residential and economic role and function. With the progressive residential development of the City over many decades, the availability of land for development and the broad range of land uses, areas have developed different roles within the housing market. Older established suburbs, such as Maddington, Beckenham, Kenwick and Gosnells (Central), which are expected undergo a degree of redevelopment, are likely to attract a large number of persons in their late teens and early twenties, which is a reflection on the increasing amount of diverse housing and rental accommodation and being close to services. In contrast, the small areas of Thornlie (Central), Thornlie (East) and Gosnells (Balance) have limited development opportunities and consequently are losing a large number of households and established families seeking new housing opportunities elsewhere. Development areas in Canning Vale and Southern River and, in the longer term, Martin (West) are likely to provide a broader range of housing choices for first home buyers through to ’upgrader’ markets. Finally, the predominantly rural area of Martin (East)-Orange attracts established and mature families. This variety of function and role of the small areas in Gosnells means that population outcomes differ significantly across the City.

Housing supply

There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next five to twenty years. There remains significant further potential within the existing growth areas of Canning Vale and Southern River, with new ’greenfield’ opportunity being identified in Southern River (East). There is also additional potential through smaller developments in Martin (East). Group dwelling development in the more urban parts of the city (Maddington, Huntingdale and, in the longer term, Gosnells) is also likely to occur. There are also other future greenfield sites, most notably in Gosnells (Balance) and Southern River (East), providing for significant growth in the future. Additionally, the State Government has identified possible future release areas within the Martin (East)-Orange Grove area, albeit most likely post 2031. Additionally, there are other sources of supply: rural residential and, most notably, infill development opportunities throughout the City, albeit at lower levels than the major growth areas identified above. In contrast, areas such as Thornlie, Gosnells (Central) and Langford and are likely to have very low levels of residential development in comparison with recent decades due to scarcity of identifiable ’greenfield’ and redevelopment sites.

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