Gosford City CouncilPopulation forecast
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Kariong

Population and age structure

Between 2011 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Kariong indicate a 8.7% decrease in population under working age, a 24.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 4.9% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Gosford City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Kariong - Total persons201120262036Change between 2011 and 2036
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 5328.14767.54797.5-53
5 to 9 5438.35088.05158.0-28
10 to 14 5618.55108.05208.1-41
15 to 19 6129.34947.84887.6-124
20 to 24 3715.63876.13856.0+14
25 to 29 3505.33715.83745.8+24
30 to 34 4637.04557.24507.0-13
35 to 39 4987.64687.44837.5-15
40 to 44 5658.64527.14717.3-94
45 to 49 5578.54216.64236.6-134
50 to 54 4566.94126.54076.3-49
55 to 59 2974.53906.13545.5+57
60 to 64 2313.53365.32904.5+59
65 to 69 1772.72554.02604.1+83
70 to 74 1422.21742.72323.6+90
75 to 79 1091.71282.01662.6+57
80 to 84 610.9781.2881.4+27
85 and over490.7370.6400.6-9
Total persons6,574100.06,353100.06,426100.0-148

Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, September 2014.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2036: 40 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2036: 88 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2036: 166 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2036: 232 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2036: 260 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2036: 290 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2036: 354 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2036: 407 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2036: 423 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2036: 471 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2036: 483 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2036: 450 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2036: 374 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2036: 385 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2036: 488 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2036: 520 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2036: 515 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2036: 479 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026: 37 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026: 78 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026: 128 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026: 174 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026: 255 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026: 336 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026: 390 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026: 412 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026: 421 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026: 452 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026: 468 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026: 455 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026: 371 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026: 387 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026: 494 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026: 510 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026: 508 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026: 476 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2011: 49 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2011: 61 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2011: 109 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2011: 142 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2011: 177 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2011: 231 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2011: 297 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2011: 456 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2011: 557 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2011: 565 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2011: 498 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2011: 463 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2011: 350 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2011: 371 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2011: 612 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2011: 561 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2011: 543 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2011: 532
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2014.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2026 to 2036: 3 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2026 to 2036: 11 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2026 to 2036: 38 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2026 to 2036: 58 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2026 to 2036: 5 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2026 to 2036: -46 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2026 to 2036: -36 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2026 to 2036: -5 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2026 to 2036: 2 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2026 to 2036: 20 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2026 to 2036: 15 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2026 to 2036: -5 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2026 to 2036: 3 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2026 to 2036: -2 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2026 to 2036: -6 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2026 to 2036: 9 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2026 to 2036: 6 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2026 to 2036: 3 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2011 to 2026: -12 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2011 to 2026: 17 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2011 to 2026: 19 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2011 to 2026: 32 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2011 to 2026: 78 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2011 to 2026: 105 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2011 to 2026: 93 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2011 to 2026: -44 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2011 to 2026: -136 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2011 to 2026: -113 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2011 to 2026: -30 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2011 to 2026: -8 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2011 to 2026: 21 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2011 to 2026: 16 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2011 to 2026: -118 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2011 to 2026: -51 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2011 to 2026: -35 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2011 to 2026: -56
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2014.

Key findings

In 2011, the dominant age structure for persons in Kariong was ages 15 to 19 , which accounted for 9.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2011 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 60 to 64 , which is expected to increase by 105 and account for 5.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 10 to 14 years, with a total of 510 persons.

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