Drivers of population change
The City of Gosford is located in the Central Coast Region of New South Wales, about 80 kilometres north of Sydney. The City encompasses a total land area of about 1,030 square kilometres, of which a large proportion is State Forest, National Park and nature reserves, including beaches and waterways. The City is based around significant waterways including the Tasman Sea, Broken Bay and Brisbane Water.
Settlement in the City dates from the 1820s and 1830s with development occurring mainly in the east and along the coast. Early industries included shipbuilding and citrus orchards. Development of the area increased with the completion of a railway line and the growth in tourism, leading to demand for land subdivisions along the coast for holiday villages and resort facilities. Significant development occurred in the post-war years, particularly in eastern areas, aided by improvements in road transport and the northern expansion of metropolitan Sydney. From the 1960s onwards, significant growth occurred in permanent dwellings and the population of the area increased substantially. The primary housing market role that the City of Gosford has played in the post war period has been to provide home owning opportunities for two distinct markets - young family households and retirees, with the overwhelming demand from metropolitan Sydney.
There is continued demand for residential development within the City, catering for both people moving from Sydney and also new households being formed from within the existing population of the City of Gosford. However, the area is likely to continue to lose population to the north, especially as the supply of detached dwellings is likely to become limited over the next twenty years.
Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2014.
Note: The migration flows depicted above are historical and do not represent future or forecast migration flows or subsequent council boundary changes. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas flow shows overseas arrivals only, based on answers to the census question “where did the person usually live 5-years ago.With the variety of residential areas, natural characteristics and period of development, different areas within the City of Gosford have developed different roles within the housing market. The bulk of the areas attract a combination of families and retirees (and sometimes elderly) including Avoca Beach-Picketts Valley-Copacabana-MacMasters Beach, Forresters Beach-Wamberal-Terrigal-North Avoca, Kincumber, Kincumber South-Bensville-Empire Bay, Umina Beach, Yattalunga-Saratoga-Davistown and Woy Woy-Blackwall. Gosford-West Gosford attracts a large number of young adults in line with its role as the major centre in the Local Government Area. East Gosford-Point Frederick-Springfield, Erina-Green Point, Point Clare-Tascott-Koolewong and Ettalong Beach-Booker Bay have a higher proportion of retirees. The variety of function and role of the small areas in the City of Gosford means that population outcomes differ significantly across the City.
There are also significant differences in the supply of future residential land within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures over the next twenty-five years. Significant development opportunities have been identified in the town centres of Gosford-West Gosford, Woy Woy-Blackwall and Umina Beach. This will generally take the form of medium and high-rise development. Likewise, most of the development opportunities outside of these areas consist of development within established town and neighbourhood centres. Elsewhere, there are significant constraints to future development, with limited availability of land suitable for development. Growth in households is also expected to come from the conversion of holiday dwellings to permanent residences as well as the construction of new dwellings.