Impact of COVID-19 on population growth

COVID-19 is a significant health crisis which has resulted in major social and economic disruption across the world. In Australia, the closure of borders (both external and internal) will have impacts on the size and distribution of future population growth. At a local level, the impacts on population growth and demographics outcomes will be felt differently.

.id developed population forecasts for Glenelg Shire in December 2017. These forecasts do not consider potential impacts to assumptions stemming from COVID-19. They do, however, provide a baseline by which to understand where the population may have been without this external shock.

In order to further understand how COVID-19 may impact population growth within Glenelg Shire, we have developed a COVID-19 impact assessment. This assessment is based upon our understanding of typologies (i.e. the characteristics, roles and functions of communities). It demonstrates how these influences may play out across a range of variables, at a localised level. These include:

• Migration - who will move into an area as well as who is leaving the area.
• Natural increase - impacts on the forecast numbers of births or deaths.
• Economic resilience - availability of jobs.
• Resident vulnerability - unmet social and economic needs.
• Local amenity - factors that make an area a more enjoyable place to live.

Characteristics of coastal typology

Glenelg Shire is one of 52 local government areas in Australia that can be classified as a coastal area.

Typical characteristics of coastal areas include:

• regional areas where the majority of the population resides along the coast;
• contain regional cities (population under 50,000) that provide services and employment for communities in surrounding rural areas;
• contain townships and smaller coastal settlements with very low population densities;
• can be dependent on single (or a few select) industries such as tourism, heavy industry & port facilities, agriculture & fishing etc. for employment;
• generally older age profile, often due to out-migration of younger residents;
• high level of natural amenity including beaches and national parks;
• generally affordable housing compared to major regional cities and capital cities;
• a large proportion of separate dwellings and high levels of homeownership;
• can offer unique ambiance and lifestyle, with some areas attractive to new residents seeking; a lifestyle change, including ‘empty nesters’ and retirees; and
• generally lower levels of cultural diversity, with a low share of residents born overseas.

Potential impacts on coastal areas

Based on our understanding of the characteristics of coastal areas, we consider the following to be likely impacts on population growth. These insights are not necessarily specific to the Glenelg Shire, but reflect challenges and opportunities for this type of place.

Glenelg Shire

Migration

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Net migration explains who will move into an area as well as who is leaving the area. It is therefore an excellent way of understanding housing markets and how the role and function of an area may be affected by COVID-19. Changes to migration may disproportionately affect industries such as the education sector due to their reliance on overseas migration.

Natural increase

The size of the population increases through births and decline through deaths. The number of forecast births is an indication of the exposure the community has to changes to the fertility rate. The share of residents aged 70+ years provides an indication of the exposure the community has to changes to the mortality rate due to COVID-19.

Economic vulnerability

Economic vulnerability is an indicator of the degree to which COVID-19 may negatively impact the employment prospects of local residents. Communities with high gross regional product decline and/or high levels of local jobs declining are more likely to experience lower levels of population growth. Additionally, economies with scale and diversification may be more likely to retain, and/or attract residents relative to other areas.

Resident vulnerability

This indicator identifies communities with a high proportion of residents who have unmet social and economic needs (housing, income, education etc.) Due to COVID-19, these communities, particularly those with a younger, more mobile population, are expected to experience a greater change in how or where residents live (i.e. younger residents moving back home with their parents, formation of group households to share costs or leaving the area in search of employment opportunities elsewhere).

Local amenity

Local amenity considers the amenity a region provides its residents, with a particular focus on access to affordable housing and access to lifestyle opportunities. It is an indicator of the livability of an area, in the context of COVID-19.

Data updates

This page shows the latest version of how COVID-19 may impact population growth for Glenelg Shire. As new information becomes available (e.g. data revisions, additional data sets of relevance) updates will be applied.

Recent updates include:

• 7 October 2020: Update to include National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) Version 2.1 (September 2020). NIEIR has estimated the potential impacts of coronavirus on economic activity, employment and sectors at the LGA level. Model outputs above are based on information available before September 24.
• 25 September 2020: Update to include National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) Version 2.0 (September 2020).

Given the dynamic nature of COVID-19, revisions will be made to our population forecasts once sufficient data is available.

Disclaimer

.id has taken all due care in the preparation of this data. While .id endeavours to provide reliable information and believes the material is accurate it will not be liable for any claim by any party acting on such information. .id accepts no liability with respect to the correctness, accuracy, currency, completeness, relevance or otherwise of this data. Please view our privacy policy, terms of use and legal notices.