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City of Greater GeelongPopulation forecast

City of Greater Geelong

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for City of Greater Geelong indicate a 11.3% increase in population under working age, a 14.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 10.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Greater Geelong is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
City of Greater Geelong - Total persons202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)15,7815.818,8416.224,4946.2+8,713
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)22,9798.524,5938.132,8308.3+9,851
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)18,6556.920,9316.926,7696.8+8,113
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)23,7348.826,7078.835,1018.9+11,367
Young workforce (25 to 34)38,85914.443,21814.357,09014.4+18,231
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)51,14418.957,29619.076,13419.2+24,989
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)31,91611.834,31011.443,57711.0+11,661
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)31,01211.533,18011.040,20810.1+9,196
Seniors (70 to 84)30,04211.135,46911.748,20812.2+18,166
Elderly aged (85 and over)6,6642.57,3632.411,9773.0+5,314
Total persons270,786100.0301,908100.0396,388100.0+125,602
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), January 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in City of Greater Geelong was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 18.9% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which is expected to increase by 6,151 and account for 19.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 57,296 persons.

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