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City of Greater GeelongPopulation forecast

City of Greater Geelong

Population and age structure

Between 2021 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for City of Greater Geelong indicate a 11.3% increase in population under working age, a 14.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 10.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Greater Geelong is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
City of Greater Geelong - Total persons202120262041Change between 2021 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 415,7815.818,8416.224,4946.2+8,713
5 to 916,5786.117,5325.823,6946.0+7,116
10 to 1416,0675.917,5485.822,5405.7+6,473
15 to 1915,2245.617,9465.922,8335.8+7,610
20 to 2417,5006.519,2056.425,6336.5+8,133
25 to 2919,6557.321,2407.028,2507.1+8,595
30 to 3419,2047.121,9787.328,8407.3+9,636
35 to 3918,2956.820,8136.927,5106.9+9,215
40 to 4416,0435.919,1046.325,0106.3+8,967
45 to 4916,8066.217,3795.823,6136.0+6,807
50 to 5415,9805.917,5405.822,2675.6+6,286
55 to 5915,9355.916,7715.621,3105.4+5,375
60 to 6415,9615.916,6815.520,1695.1+4,208
65 to 6915,0515.616,4985.520,0395.1+4,989
70 to 7413,8695.114,9975.018,8314.8+4,962
75 to 799,5703.512,5734.216,5034.2+6,933
80 to 846,6022.47,8982.612,8733.2+6,271
85 and over6,6642.57,3632.411,9773.0+5,314
Total persons270,786100.0301,908100.0396,388100.0+125,602
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), January 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the dominant age structure for persons in City of Greater Geelong was ages 25 to 29, which accounted for 7.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2021 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 40 to 44, which is expected to increase by 3,061 and account for 6.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 21,978 persons.

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