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City of Greater GeelongPopulation forecast

City of Greater Geelong

Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for City of Greater Geelong indicate a 26.7% increase in population under working age, a 34.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 21.4% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the City of Greater Geelong is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
City of Greater Geelong - Total persons201620262041Change between 2016 and 2041
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 415,3146.418,8466.324,8266.3+9,512
5 to 914,9226.218,8546.324,8476.3+9,926
10 to 1413,8845.818,1936.123,6666.0+9,782
15 to 1914,9356.218,4746.223,9756.1+9,040
20 to 2416,8107.019,5936.625,7266.5+8,916
25 to 2916,1286.720,5516.927,1476.9+11,019
30 to 3415,5376.520,3646.827,0176.9+11,480
35 to 3914,3356.019,2726.525,7606.6+11,424
40 to 4415,5906.518,4956.224,4726.2+8,881
45 to 4915,1676.317,5745.923,1855.9+8,019
50 to 5415,0906.317,5245.921,9955.6+6,906
55 to 5914,9836.316,8185.621,1835.4+6,200
60 to 6413,9915.816,5055.520,3075.2+6,316
65 to 6913,2745.515,9665.319,7845.0+6,510
70 to 7410,0894.214,0034.718,0844.6+7,995
75 to 797,5953.211,6363.915,7894.0+8,194
80 to 845,5242.37,7892.612,5043.2+6,981
85 and over6,3632.78,2602.812,9483.3+6,585
Total persons239,531100.0298,716100.0393,216100.0+153,685
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), May 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in City of Greater Geelong was ages 20 to 24, which accounted for 7.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2026 is forecast to be in ages 35 to 39, which is expected to increase by 4,937 and account for 6.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2026 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 20,551 persons.

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