City of Greater GeelongPopulation forecast

This forecast has been updated with 2016 Census dwelling counts and the 2016 Estimated Resident Population. More information can be found here.

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City of Greater Geelong

Births and deaths

In 2017, St Leonards - Indented Head is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.83 (births per woman), this is expected to decrease to 2.53 in 2036.

The number of births in the City of Greater Geelong are derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-49 by the female population in these age groups for all years during the forecast period.

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having relatively low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.

Forecast fertility rates (births per woman)
City of Greater GeelongYearChange between 2017 and 2036
City of Greater Geelong1.811.80-0.01
Armstrong Creek2.162.11-0.05
Barwon Heads - Connewarre - Breamlea2.212.15-0.06
Bell Park1.871.80-0.07
Bell Post Hill2.021.93-0.08
Clifton Springs1.881.85-0.03
Drysdale - Bellarine2.492.45-0.05
East Geelong1.591.56-0.03
Geelong - South Geelong - Drumcondra1.581.55-0.03
Geelong West - Manifold Heights1.671.64-0.03
Hamlyn Heights1.901.87-0.03
Herne Hill - Fyansford1.771.76-0.01
Highton - Wandana Heights - Ceres1.921.89-0.03
Lovely Banks - Batesford - Moorabool2.082.05-0.03
Marshall - Charlemont2.042.00-0.04
Mount Duneed2.142.11-0.03
Newcomb - Moolap2.001.89-0.10
Norlane - North Shore2.081.96-0.12
North Geelong - Rippleside1.821.75-0.07
Ocean Grove1.831.80-0.03
Rural Bellarine Peninsula2.582.37-0.21
Rural North2.302.17-0.13
St Albans Park1.891.77-0.11
St Leonards - Indented Head2.832.53-0.31
Thomson - Breakwater1.621.64+0.02
Waurn Ponds2.022.00-0.02

Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2036, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2017.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in the City of Greater Geelong is a reflection of death rates assumed for small areas. For historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for the City of Greater Geelong, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 years and over).

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing, with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men's life expectancy increasing more than that of women.