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Carrum Downs

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Carrum Downs will increase by an average of 94 dwellings per annum to 10,642 in 2041.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Frankston City. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2017 dwelling additions are based on building approvals, lagged by 12-18 months. From 2016 onwards:

  • 27 Brunnings Road - 26 dwellings (2017)
  • 27 McCormicks Road Dwellings - 10 dwellings (2017)
  • 636-640 Frankston-Dandenong Road Dwellings - 29 dwellings (2017)
  • Broderick Terrace - 39 dwellings (2017)
  • 100 Cadles Road - 12 dwellings (2017-2018)
  • Carum Park Estate - 36 dwellings (2017-2019)
  • Wattlewood Estate - 105 dwellings (2017-2023)
  • Carrum Heights - 29 dwellings (2017-2020)
  • Clifton Rise - 19 dwellings (2017-2021)
  • 1231 Frankston-Dandenong Road - 11 dwellings (2018)
  • 26 Robin Drive - 16 dwellings (2018)
  • 4 Herbert Road - 12 dwellings (2018)
  • 23 Brunnings Road - 18 dwellings (2018)
  • Evergreen Gardens - 21 dwellings (2018)
  • 660-670 Frankston-Dandenong Road - 28 dwellings (2018-2019)
  • 63 Hall Road - 45 dwellings (2019)
  • Wilton Estate - 82 dwellings (2019-2024)
  • 74-76 Hall Road - 15 dwellings (2020-2021)
  • 205 McCormicks Road - 48 dwellings (2020-2023)
  • Wattlewood Estate - 105 dwellings (2017-2023)
  • 4 Hall Road - 36 dwellings (2021-2022)
  • 151 Hall Road - 10 dwellings (2022)
  • 134 Cadles Road - 13 dwellings (2022-2023)
  • 37-39 McCormicks Road - 16 dwellings (2022-2023)
  • 9-15 Cadles Road - 31 dwellings (2023)
  • Carrum Downs Future Residential - 13 dwellings (2023-2024)
  • 43 Hall Road - 61 dwellings (2023-2027)
  • Hall Road Future Residential - 86 dwellings (2024-2033)
  • 67 Broderick Road - 46 dwellings (2024-2027)
  • 17 and 18 Pagett Road - 185 dwellings (2024-2031)
  • 24 Hall Road - 24 dwellings (2025-2026)
  • Clifton Grove (Future Stages) - 25 dwellings (2025-2028)
  • 20 Brunnings Road - 11 dwellings (2026-2027)
  • Cadles Road Future Residential - 40 dwellings (2027-2030)
  • Daisys Garden Supplies - 60 dwellings (2027-2030)
  • Hall Road Future Residential - 86 dwellings (2024-2033)
  • Frankston -Dandenong Road Future Potential - 10 dwellings (2031)
  • Lats Avenue Future Residential - 75 dwellings (2031-2035)
  • Small sites - 52 dwellings
  • High level of infill (30-55 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2041 Total dwellings: 10,642 2040 Total dwellings: 10,587 2039 Total dwellings: 10,532 2038 Total dwellings: 10,477 2037 Total dwellings: 10,422 2036 Total dwellings: 10,367 2035 Total dwellings: 10,312 2034 Total dwellings: 10,252 2033 Total dwellings: 10,187 2032 Total dwellings: 10,117 2031 Total dwellings: 10,047 2030 Total dwellings: 9,972 2029 Total dwellings: 9,893 2028 Total dwellings: 9,813 2027 Total dwellings: 9,728 2026 Total dwellings: 9,630 2025 Total dwellings: 9,522 2024 Total dwellings: 9,406 2023 Total dwellings: 9,288 2022 Total dwellings: 9,164 2021 Total dwellings: 9,037 2020 Total dwellings: 8,903 2019 Total dwellings: 8,769 2018 Total dwellings: 8,632 2017 Total dwellings: 8,468 2041 Total dwellings: 10,642 2040 Total dwellings: 10,587 2039 Total dwellings: 10,532 2038 Total dwellings: 10,477 2037 Total dwellings: 10,422 2036 Total dwellings: 10,367 2035 Total dwellings: 10,312 2034 Total dwellings: 10,252 2033 Total dwellings: 10,187 2032 Total dwellings: 10,117 2031 Total dwellings: 10,047 2030 Total dwellings: 9,972 2029 Total dwellings: 9,893 2028 Total dwellings: 9,813 2027 Total dwellings: 9,728 2026 Total dwellings: 9,630 2025 Total dwellings: 9,522 2024 Total dwellings: 9,406 2023 Total dwellings: 9,288 2022 Total dwellings: 9,164 2021 Total dwellings: 9,037 2020 Total dwellings: 8,903 2019 Total dwellings: 8,769 2018 Total dwellings: 8,632 2017 Total dwellings: 8,468 2041 Forecast development: 55 2040 Forecast development: 55 2039 Forecast development: 55 2038 Forecast development: 55 2037 Forecast development: 55 2036 Forecast development: 55 2035 Forecast development: 60 2034 Forecast development: 65 2033 Forecast development: 70 2032 Forecast development: 70 2031 Forecast development: 75 2030 Forecast development: 79 2029 Forecast development: 80 2028 Forecast development: 85 2027 Forecast development: 98 2026 Forecast development: 108 2025 Forecast development: 116 2024 Forecast development: 118 2023 Forecast development: 124 2022 Forecast development: 127 2021 Forecast development: 134 2020 Forecast development: 134 2019 Forecast development: 137 2018 Forecast development: 164 2017 Forecast development: 171
Population and household forecasts, 2016 to 2041, prepared by .id the population experts, September 2018.
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