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Frankston CityPopulation forecast

Carrum Downs

Population, households and dwellings

The number of dwellings in Carrum Downs is forecast to grow from 9,011 in 2021 to 10,616 in 2041, with the average household size falling from 2.51 to 2.44 by 2041.

This summary shows the results of the forecasts for population, households and dwellings in Frankston City. The period 2021 to 2026, as the short to medium term, is likely to be the most accurate and useful forecast information for immediate planning purposes.

It is important to look at the relationship between population and average household size. If the average household size is falling, then there will need to be growth in the number of households (and dwellings for them to live in) to maintain or grow the population.

Forecast population, households and dwellings
Carrum DownsForecast year
Summary20212026203120362041
Population22,26223,71824,60525,12125,538
Change in population (5yrs)--1,456887517417
Average annual change--1.28%0.74%0.42%0.33%
Households8,7399,3159,72010,02910,295
Average household size2.512.512.492.462.44
Population in non private dwellings328348383413443
Dwellings9,0119,60410,02110,34110,616
Dwelling occupancy rate96.9896.9997.0096.9896.98
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2021 to 2041, prepared by .id (informed decisions), February 2023.

Key findings

In 2021, the total population of Carrum Downs was estimated to be 22,262 people. It is expected to increase by over 2,343 people to 24,605 by 2026, at an average annual growth rate of 2.02%. This is based on an increase of over 981 households during the period, with the average number of persons per household falling from 2.51 to 2.49 by 2026.

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